Mortgage that Starship!!

A thread of 6 messages, 14 February 1990 to 17 February 1990, in the order they were sent.

#1018 Mortgage that Starship!!

This one ought to draw some interesting comments.

I'm about to start up my traveller game with all-new PC's that my players
just generated.  Out of the entire group, two of the PC's have starships
(a class-S for the retired scout PC, and a Far Trader for the retired
merchant PC).  Now this is where it gets interesting.

The scout PC is assumed to have his ship as a loan of indefinite duration,
but the merchant PC is assumed to have acquired his via purchase or some-
such (the rules are not specific about this).  However, the rules DO say
that he also acquired a 40-year mortgage to go along with the ship.  They
do not go into detail about how this should be managed.

Let us assume that the merchant acquired a USED Far Trader (list price:
MCr. 41.07) and that after initial depreciation and down-payment, that
he is left with MCr. 20.535 (50% of the original price) to amortize over
a 40 year period.  I also assume quarterly, rather then monthly, payments
(since being in a position to drop off a check at the mortgage-holding
financial institution on a monthly basis may be difficult for a ship
that could be anywhere within a 50-or-so parsec radius).

Given these assumptions, let's used the information from "Starship
Purchase" (pg. 89, MT Imperial Encyclopedia) to generate an amortized
loan payment schedule and see what happens.

After all of the numbers given, the book says that the final cost to the
new ship owner (principal and interest) should be 220% of the original
purchase price.  For the used starship (above), that would be MCr. 45.177.
Reverse calculation of a 40-year amortized loan with that amount as the
ultimate total gives us an interest rate of 4.63%.  The quarterly payment
turns out to be Cr. 282,496.92 (every 3 months).  This is a lot of cash!

If we assume that this is reasonably accurate, then the question is: Can
the PC actually expect to generate enough income to make the payments and
still have enough left over to live on?  Notice that we haven't even touched
on the issues of crew salaries, annual maintenance costs, fuel, and general
upkeep.  These will be considered later.

According to specs. in "Supplement 7: Traders and Gunboats", the ship can
carry 7 High/Mid passengers, 4 in Low Passage, and 46 tons of freight.  If
we assume best case (7 High Psg, 4 Low Psg, and full cargo hold) then we
have Cr. 10,000 x 7, Cr. 1,000 x 4, and Cr. 1,000 x 46.  This represents
a potential maximum of Cr. 120,000 per week.  So assuming this PC is Super-
Trader, and could accomplish this week after week, we have a revenue
potential of MCr. 1.44 per quarter, before expenses, and not considering
port time for freight transfer, refueling, etc.  After deducting the
quarterly mortgage payment, we're left with MCr. ~1.158, before expenses,
as profit.  So much for best case.

Now, let's try something more realistic.  Assume 50% of the time is spend
in port, refueling, haggling for freight and passengers, etc.  Further
assume that, on average, the ship is only operating at have capacity for
cargo and passagers.  This reduces the gross quarterly income to Cr. 360,000
(again, before expenses).  Deduct the quarterly mortgage payment, and we're
left with Cr. 77,503.08 to cover 3 months worth of expenses.

Now, let's look at what it costs to run this starship.

First, there's fuel.  In 12 weeks, this ship will jump 6 times and burn
45 days worth of maneuver and powerplant fuel (based on the 50% active
assumption).  The ship has a jump-2 drive but we'll assume that only 1/3
of the jumps are jump-2; the other 2/3 are jump-1.  This means that total
fuel consumption for 4 jump-1 and 2 jump-2 trips (based on ship design
from MT Referee's Manual) is 1,620 kliters, at Cr. 35/kl., works out to
cost of Cr. 56,700.  For the powerplant, which uses (1.107 kl./hr. x 24 hrs.
x 45 days x Cr. 35/kl.), we have a total maneuver & powerplant fuel cost of
Cr. 41,844.60.  Add these two together, and we get a total quarterly cost
of Cr. 98,544.60.  Oops!  We've already exceeding our available cash!
Therefore, the ship must rely, at least partially, on refuelling from
natural sources (gas-giants or water-worlds).  Let's assume 50% of the
fuel is acquired this way.  Now, our quarterly fuel bill drops down to
Cr. 49,272.30.  Let's hope the ship doesn't wear out prematurely from all
of that atmosphere skimming :-).

Next, we have life support for 3 crew members, 1/2 of 7 High/Mid passengers,
and 1/2 of 4 Low passengers (we will assume for the sake of the merchants
wallet that none of the freight requires life support).  The Imperial
Encyclopedia says that each stateroom requires Cr. 2000 of support per
2 week trip, and each Low berth requires Cr. 100 per usage.  If we assume
that the crew-members consume life support equal to 1 Mid psg. passenger,
(say, 80% of 1 High psg. passenger), then for each 1-way trip we use
(High Psg=Cr. 2000 x 0.5 x 3.5) + (Mid Psg= Cr. 1600 x 0.5 x 1.5) + (Low
Psg= Cr. 100 x 2) for a total of Cr. 4,900.  We assume no LS is used while
a ship is in port.

Then there are crew salaries to worry about.  For a Far Trader, the crew
consists of 1 Bridge crew-member (Pilot), 1 Engineer, and 1 Medic/Steward.
If we assume that the pilot is the owner, then we must only pay the Engineer
and the Steward.  Given the "skill levels" recently posted by METLAY (which
are pretty good definitions, IMHO), the Engineer and Steward are probably
both level-2 for purposes of salary determination.  For these levels (and
assuming the Engineer achieved O-3 in the Merchants), the salaries should
be Cr. 1950/mo. for the Engineer and Cr. 1000/mo. for the Steward.  Quarterly,
this would be Cr. 8,850.

The annual maintenance fee cannot be avoided, if the ship is to keep flying.
This amounts to 0.1% of the cash price of the ship annually (Cr. 20,535,
in this case), which works out to Cr. 5,133.75 per quarter.

Finally, we have berthing costs.  This includes landing fees, handling costs,
facilities use charges, and other miscellaneous starport expenses.  The
average cost is Cr. 100 for the first 6 days in port, plus Cr. 100 for each
additional day beyond 6.  If we assume that the ship is in port 50% of the
time, the we have 6 weeks at Cr. 200/week, or Cr. 1,200.

So, the bottom line is Cr. 49,272.30 for fuel, Cr. 4,900 for Life Support,
8,850 in salaries, and Cr. 1,200 in berthing fees, which works out to a
total of Cr. 64,222.30.  Out of Cr. 77,503.08, we are left with Cr. 13,280.78
for quarterly profit, or Cr. 53,123.12 per year.

Before taxes, but that's another story.

        Mark F. Cook

USMail: User Interface Technical Support
        Hewlett-Packard - Interface Technology Operation
        [address removed]

INTERNET: [email removed]
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#1022 Re: Mortgage that Starship!!

>This one ought to draw some interesting comments.

Yes it should, and would you send followups to me for inclusion in the
now dormant TRADE & COMMMERCE Digest. my address is [email removed]

>I'm about to start up my traveller game with all-new PC's that my players
>just generated.  Out of the entire group, two of the PC's have starships
>(a class-S for the retired scout PC, and a Far Trader for the retired
>merchant PC).  Now this is where it gets interesting.
>
>Let us assume that the merchant acquired a USED Far Trader (list price:
>MCr. 41.07) and that after initial depreciation and down-payment, that
>he is left with MCr. 20.535 (50% of the original price) to amortize over

[Lots of good stuff deleted.]

Please send followups to me, as I will will edit them and make it much
easier to digest. Pun intended.


>INTERNET: [email removed]
>UUCP:     {cmcl2, harpo, hplabs, rice, tektronix}!hp-pcd!markc

Thanks for the input, maybe we can get the digest going again. Also
does any one have any interest for part 2 of the speculative trade system
that we were working on back in Sept?

Greg

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#1024 Re:Mortgage that Starship!!

>So, the bottom line is Cr. 49,272.30 for fuel, Cr. 4,900 for Life Support,
>8,850 in salaries, and Cr. 1,200 in berthing fees, which works out to a
>total of Cr. 64,222.30.  Out of Cr. 77,503.08, we are left with Cr. 13,280.78
>for quarterly profit, or Cr. 53,123.12 per year.

Oops!  I left out the annual maintenance fee!  That was calculated as...

>The annual maintenance fee cannot be avoided, if the ship is to keep flying.
>This amounts to 0.1% of the cash price of the ship annually (Cr. 20,535,
>in this case), which works out to Cr. 5,133.75 per quarter.

So, the actual total is Cr. 69,356.05.  This leaves (77,503.08 - 69,356.05)
or Cr. 8,147.03 net profit per quarter.

But, wait!  Perhaps I'm too generous with the annual maintenance fee.
Afterall, as a car gets older, it's maintenance costs go up, not down.
Why not assume the same for a starship?  Lets just use the original price
as a calculation base, instead of half the original price.  This would
double the amount shown above (Cr. 10,267.50, instead of Cr. 5,133.75),
so by subtracting the second half (Cr. 5,133.75) for the net, we get
an actual net profit of Cr. 3,013.28 per quarter.  Again, before taxes.
I don't know about you, but Cr. 1,004.43 per month sounds kinda' slim
to me.

Later,

        Mark F. Cook

USMail: User Interface Technical Support
        Hewlett-Packard - Interface Technology Operation
        [address removed]

INTERNET: [email removed]
UUCP:     {cmcl2, harpo, hplabs, rice, tektronix}!hp-pcd!markc

All opinions and material above is the responsibility of the originator.
Submissions: [email removed], or [email removed]
Administrator: [email removed] (James Perkins)
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#1028 Re: Mortgage that Starship

>So, the bottom line is  ... Cr. 4,900 for Life Support, ...

In one campaign, some unscrupulous starliner operators were accused of
feeding passengers watered-down "fast" drug. This slows the passengers
metabolic rate, cutting down on life support and food cost. Not a big
factor for the Trader example, but if running the Spinward Marches
Love Boat is your business...  Not advisable to feed your crew the
same, if you want good reaction time. :-)

- -ted

Ted Kim
UCLA Computer Science Department  Internet: [email removed]
3804C Boelter Hall                UUCP:    ...!{uunet|ucbvax}!cs.ucla.edu!tek
[address removed]    		  Phone:   [phone removed]

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#1036 Re: Mortgage that Starship!!

> Resent-Message-Id: [email removed]
> Archive-Message-Number: 1024
> From: [email removed]
> Message-Id: [email removed]
> Subject: Re:Mortgage that Starship!!
> To: [email removed]
> Date: Thu, 15 Feb 90 8:55:55 PST
>
> >So, the bottom line is Cr. 49,272.30 for fuel, Cr. 4,900 for Life Support,
> >8,850 in salaries, and Cr. 1,200 in berthing fees, which works out to a
> >total of Cr. 64,222.30.  Out of Cr. 77,503.08, we are left with Cr. 13,280.78
> >for quarterly profit, or Cr. 53,123.12 per year.
>
> Oops!  I left out the annual maintenance fee!  That was calculated as...
>
> >The annual maintenance fee cannot be avoided, if the ship is to keep flying.
> >This amounts to 0.1% of the cash price of the ship annually (Cr. 20,535,
> >in this case), which works out to Cr. 5,133.75 per quarter.
>
> So, the actual total is Cr. 69,356.05.  This leaves (77,503.08 - 69,356.05)
> or Cr. 8,147.03 net profit per quarter.
>
> But, wait!  Perhaps I'm too generous with the annual maintenance fee.
> Afterall, as a car gets older, it's maintenance costs go up, not down.
> Why not assume the same for a starship?  Lets just use the original price
> as a calculation base, instead of half the original price.  This would
> double the amount shown above (Cr. 10,267.50, instead of Cr. 5,133.75),
> so by subtracting the second half (Cr. 5,133.75) for the net, we get
> an actual net profit of Cr. 3,013.28 per quarter.  Again, before taxes.
> I don't know about you, but Cr. 1,004.43 per month sounds kinda' slim
> to me.
>
> Later,
>
>         Mark F. Cook


Y'know, I had this same problem.  No matter what I did with the
numbers, I could NOT get them to come out in any way, shape, or
form to be analogous to what happens today when you buy a house,
which is the model I was using.

My problems with it were that the interest rates were coming
out far too LOW.   4% just doesn't seem right to me, in these
inflation prone times.

The other thing is, of course, what you mention above.  It
seems almost impossible to make any real kind of profit with
any moderately good ship.

Perhaps we should adopt the tone of many sci-fi books and have
the ships be HUNDREDS of years old.

Anyone care to adventure on a TL12 400 tonner?

arturo perez
<my signature-appending software doesn't work :-(

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#1038 Re: Mortgage that Starship!!

Mark F. Cook writes:
>This one ought to draw some interesting comments.
You bet.  This is my specialty.

	The main thing overlooked in your post is speculative trade.  Most
merchant ships can just barely break even on freight, and some (such as the
far trader) actually lose money under the standard assumptions. Speculative
trade is where merchants (from free traders to Tukera lines) make their real
money.  The Ref's guide rules on trade are a bit confusing (so what else is
new :-)), so I'll try to go over all the inobvious stuff. This is from
memory (my
books are at home), so if I goof on the numbers please let me know.

>Let us assume that the merchant acquired a USED Far Trader

	The rules imply it is difficult to finance a used ship (although
you could probably swing something if you have high Admin or Liason),
and more importantly, merchant ships received as mustering out benifits
were financed when new even if they are old now.  So for my figures, I
will assume that the ship is a new far trader, just financed -- ie rolled
once at mustering out. Multiple rolls just mean the ship is older and more
payments have been made, the amounts don't change.
	The far trader list price of MCr. 41.07 is financed as follows:
20% down payment - already made.
1/240 of ship price per month for 480 months (40 years).
This means a total cost of 220%, and a monthly payment of Cr. 171,125.
I think that the monthly ship payment can be dropped off at any A or B
starport, and gets forwarded by Xboat if your bank doesn't have a branch
at that particular port. In the following, I am assuming 2 jumps per month,
and 2 ~5 day stays in port doing business.

	Monthly Expenses (in Cr.)

Mortgage		171,125
Fuel			None - get water (free) and run it thru the
	purification plant. If you don't have one, get one. They are very cheap.
	(30,000 Cr for a minimum size tech 15 plant)
Life support		40,000	2K per statroom, whoever is in it, for every jump.
	I am assuming worst case for expenses.
Salaries			9,000    All crew gets 3,000/mo. (should be plenty)
Berthing fees		200
Layaway for overhaul	3,423   Based on the cost of the ship when new.

Total			Cr. 223,748 per month (4 weeks)

Income

	For speculative trade, there are a number of conditions that you need
to make a profit.  The first is a good route ("good" can be hard to pin
down without
a lot of analysis -- I'll post some comparisions after checking my
books). Probably the
easiest good route to find is two Hi pop worlds with type A starports
within one jump
of another, so I'll give figures for that.

>According to specs. in "Supplement 7: Traders and Gunboats", the ship can
>carry 7 High/Mid passengers, 4 in Low Passage, and 46 tons of freight.

The far trader specs have changed in MT due to the change in ship design
rules; they now have 61 tons of cargo space. I think the low berths are
gone too,
so I'll leave them out of my calculations.

	Assumptions: The ship is jumping back and forth between two worlds
with pop 9 (Hi), starport A, tech 15. (A lower tech level is actually
better here,
since it reduces cargo cost without changing anything else, and a pop of
A would
increase available cargos, so this is the worst case of "pop Hi,
starport A").  I
also assume someone on the ship has the Broker and Trader skills.

Passengers:
High:	3D-1D+1		avg. ~8
Middle:	3D+1		avg. ~11.5
	Only very rarely will you be unable to get a full load of passengers, so
I will assume a full load of mid. passengers. (Normally, most or all
will be high
passengers - so this will more than compensate for the rare unfilled slot.)

7 Middle passengers		Cr. 56,000 per jump (2 weeks)

Speculative Cargo

	The Freight and Cargo chart (section 5 on p.50 in Ref's guide) is used
once for freight and once for cargo (twice if you have someone with Broker).
The description for the table does not make this very clear, though, and I
think it should be fixed. I will assume that the DMs for destination pop apply
only to freight, although this is not stated.

Lot type			number		average	average tons
Major:	(1D+10 tons ea.)	1D+5 (x2)	17	229.5
Minor:	(1D+5 tons ea.)	1D+6 (x2)	19	161.5
Incidental (1D tons ea.)	1D-2 (x2)	~3	11.6

	This gives a total of ~402 tons of speculative cargo available, in
variously sized lots. At this point, your person with Trader looks them over
to determine the first die roll for each on the actual value chart for sale at
the destination.  1/6 of them, on average, will have a prerolled "6"; for
~67 tons.  He then buys the largest combination of these lots that will
fit in the hold.  I will assume that the ship averages 50 out of 61 tons
of prerolled "6" cargo. In practice, any remaining nooks can usually be
filled with prerolled 4 or 5 cargo.

Cargo cost:  Base 4,000 - 1,000 (A starport) - 1,000 (Hi pop) + 1,500 (TL15)
	= Cr. 3,500 per ton.

Cargo base selling price = 5,000 + 1,000 (Hi vs Hi) = Cr. 6,000 per ton.

	At the destination, the goods are sold with the aid of a Broker-4
(available at all type A starports).  The prerolled 6 gives a total roll of
7 thru 12 +4 for the broker gives 11 thru 16, for an average actual selling
price of 270% x 0.8 (left after broker fee) = 216% of 6,000 = 12,960 per ton.
Profit is 12,960 - 3,500 (cost) = 9,460 per ton for 50 tons gives a total of
Cr. 473,000 average profit on speculative trade per jump.

	Average Monthly Income Estimate ( in Cr.)
Passengers:	56,000 per jump = 112,000 per month
Cargo:		473,000 per jump = 946,000 per month

Total:		1,058,000
Expenses:	-223,748
		----------
Net Profit	834,252 Cr. per month

	This is a lot of money, but remember this is based on average runs
on a good route with no complications (the stuff adventures are made of...)
The point is that it is possible to get rich as a merchant IF you know what
you are doing and choose your route well. In practice, a merchant should be
able to meet the payments and save for a rainy day or time spent off the "good"
routes (ie most places).
	Comments and corrections welcome.

					W. Dow Rieder
				alias Capt. Kagariilian Grant

 	When the only tool you have is a hammer, all your problems
start to look like nails...

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