WILDSTAR is back with Economic Stats!

A thread of 3 messages, 4 January 1992 to 11 January 1992, in the order they were sent.

#3409 WILDSTAR is back with Economic Stats!

Derek Wildstar · 4 January 1992

Hi, folks!  Just when I went away for a while, everything breaks loose!  Oh,
well: I've adopted a "wait and see" attitude toward NeoTraveller.  I have
managed to get my hands on Hard Times and Solomani/Aslan: Both look great!
Over the last while, I've been misusing the mainframe at work to do a little
serious number crunching for me.  The results are below.

Several people have posted items about commerce, or the amount thereof, in
the Imperium.  Since I have just finished loading the entire Imperium and
surrounds (from the DGP data files) into a SAS (Statistical Analysis
System) dataset, I thought that might be instructive to look at the problem
from a different point of view.

Using the worlds coded for Imperial or Imperial Faction allegance, the
following statistics for the Imperium of Pre-Rebellion or very early in
the Rebellion.  The "new", rebellion-era statistics were loaded into a
database and tabulated.  The Gross Planetary Product and Taxation rules
from Striker were used to compute the GPP in Local Credits.  The Striker
exchange table was used to convert these to Imperial Standard (Port-A,
TL-15) Credits, which were then taxed at the suggested rates.  Rules from
Trillion Credit Squadron were used to compute the shipyard capacity of
each Class A and B Starport.  The Trillion Credit Squadron construction
rules were also used to estimate the number and size of ships.  The Imperial
Budget is entirely my own invention; as is the number of starships at each
tonnage class, and the trade between the various classes of starports.

The Third Imperium is a trade protectorate encompassing 10,497 systems
with a total population of about 16,731,817,153,000 sophonts.  The annual
Gross Imperial Product is 219,474,958,700,000,000 Credits.  This is the
total value of all of the goods and services produced on all the member
worlds of the Imperium in one year, adjusted to Imperial Standard Credits.
The Imperium imposes a tax burden of about 1% of the GIP, producing Imperial
revenues of about 2,194,749,587,000,000 Imperial Standard Credits per year.

The table below shows the major categories of Imperial expenditures, and the
amounts spent on them.  Note that the Imperial family recieves its income
in the form of dividends paid to the Throne (the Imperial family holds
shares in a number of megacorporations, and many lesser companies).  The
Imperial bureaucracy is supported by user fees (application, liscencing,
processing, and other fees paid for official services rendered).  Some
of these services actually produce a profit; others are subsidized by
the Imperium (for example, the XBoat network operates at a loss, but it is
subsidized through the IISS budget).  Much of these funds fall into the
"Other Expenditures" category.  The "Naval Estimates" and "Army Estimates"
are, for historical reasons, the terms for the Navy and Army budgets.

Category           Percent   Budget (MCr)
- -----------------------------------------
Naval Estimates      51.20  1,123,711,789
Army Estimates       16.05    352,257,309
Scout Service        21.31    467,701,137
Other Expenditures   11.44    251,079,352
- -----------------------------------------
ALL                 100.00  2,194,749,587

The shipyards of the Imperium's Class A starports have an aggregate capacity
(all tech levels) of 5,098,672,838 displacement tons for vessel construction.
Its Class B ports have an additional capacity 4,367,049,593 displacement tons
for the repair and annual maintainance of starships.  The table below shows
the tech level breakdown for the Imperium's Class A and B starports.

- ----------------------------------------------------------------
TL  ClassA  ClassB      BuildTons      MaintTons  Build%  Maint%
- ----------------------------------------------------------------
4        0       3              0        117,600    0.00    0.00
5        0       8              0      1,055,652    0.00    0.02
6        2      43         82,000      4,944,480    0.00    0.11
7        4      89      3,763,899     10,738,080    0.07    0.25
8       23     196     15,853,016     40,124,708    0.31    0.92
9       56     308     11,689,867    104,965,363    0.23    2.40
A      135     427     26,558,910    137,957,429    0.52    3.16
B      158     518     87,529,595    420,700,561    1.72    9.63
C      238     579    300,827,072    671,936,269    5.90   15.39
D      244     484    540,769,684    525,260,647   10.61   12.03
E      388     455  1,254,523,697    857,493,892   24.60   19.64
F      485     251  2,163,360,932  1,271,804,383   42.43   29.12
G       55      21    693,714,164    319,950,528   13.61    7.33
- ----------------------------------------------------------------
ALL  1,788   3,382  5,098,672,838  4,367,049,593  100.00  100.00

These figures can be used to estimate the approximate volume of shipping
within the Imperium.  A 10,000 displacement ton hull will be used as an
"average" to estimate construction times.  A hull occupies its tonnage
in the shipyard for its entire construction time of 160 weeks.  Ships
must also undergo annual maintainance; 2 weeks every year.  The yards of
the Imperium have an annual capacity of 265,130,980,000 ton-weeks of new
construction or maintainance, and an additional 227,086,570,000 ton-weeks
of maintainance only.  Presumably, the Naval Bases, Naval Depots, Scout
Bases, and Scout Waystations contain additional ship construction and repair
facilities to build and maintain ships for the Imperial military services
(this is a logical extension of the policy that a world's survey data does
not include the personnel or technology of any military bases present).

In peacetime, shipyards and ships presumably exist in an equilibrum: the
number of new ships constructed is the same as the number retired from
service; and all ships in service can recieve their annual maintainance.
In practice, there is always some spare shipyard capacity to provide for
regional differences, trade expansion, and so on.  Let us assume this
spare capacity at 10%.  The active lifetime of a ship must be at least as
long, and probably longer than, the period over which it is financed, 40
years.  There is good reason (analysis of the Azhanti High Lightning
class cruisers, the only class of ships for which complete records are
available) to believe that the active life can be more than 100 years.
Let us assume that it is 80 years (exactly twice the pay-off time).

Computation:
X = total tonnage in service
X/80 = annual tonnage taken out of service = annual new construction
160*(X/80) = 2*X = shipyard capacity required for new construction
2*X <= 0.90 * 265,130,980,000 (available new construction capacity) - OK!
2*X = shipyard capacity required for annual maintainance
4*X = 0.90 * (265,130,980,000 + 227,086,570,000)
X = 110,748,950,000 displacement tons.

Let:
T = New Ship Construction Time in Weeks
L = Lifetime of Ship, in Years
U = Shipyard Utilization Factor
N = Ton-Weeks of Shipyard Capacity for New Construction
M = Ton-Weeks of Shipyard Capacity for Maintainance
X = Aggregate Tonnage of In-Service Shipping

Therefore:
X = (U * (N+M)) / (2 + T/L)

But:
X <= (U*N) / (T/L)

Interestingly enough, a 5,000 ton ship requires only 144 weeks to complete.
Therefore, 11 5,000 ton ships can be constructed for slightly less shipyard
capacity as 5 10,000 ton ships.  From a construction point of view, smaller
ships are more efficient than larger ones.  However, when carrying cargo or
passengers, larger ships tend to be more efficient. A balance must be
struck, and 10,000 tons was chosen rather arbitrarily.  The table below
presents a mix of ship sizes; the ratio column indicates how many ships of
a given size can be constructed using the same amount of shipyard ton-weeks.
For the purposes of estimating the number of ships, I will assume (again
rather arbitrarily) that a mixture of ships will be built so that every
10,000 tons of shipping represents an average of 1.6 ships; the Number
column shows how the shipping is distributed to get this total.

- -----------------------------------------------------
     Hull  Weeks     Ratio  Number  %Occur      Total
- -----------------------------------------------------
      100     40  400.0000       2   6.25   1,107,490
      200     48  166.6667       4  12.50   2,214,979
      400     64   62.5000       3   9.38   1,662,120
      800    112   17.8571       4  12.50   2,214,979
    1,000    120   13.3333       6  18.75   3,322,469
    5,000    144    2.2222       2   6.25   1,107,490
   10,000    160    1.0000       8  25.00   4,429,958
   20,000    174    0.4598       2   6.25   1,107,490
   50,000    192    0.1667       1   3.13     554,631
  100,000    208    0.0769       0   0.00           0
  200,000    224    0.0357       0   0.00           0
  500,000    232    0.0138       0   0.00           0
1,000,000    240    0.0067       0   0.00           0
- -----------------------------------------------------

Presumably, Class A starports are also primary trade and commerce locations,
so that most traffic passes through them.  Class B ports would be
responsible for less of the trade, and so on down through Class E (slim)
and X (none).  Worlds on a shipping main may receive through traffic, even
if the mainworld is bypassed.  The following table presents a possible
breakdown.  The ships column indicates the number of arrivals and departures
(flight operations) per week; less than half this number will be in port at
any one time.

- -------------------------------------------------------------------
Class  Number  %Trade        TonsTrade    TonsEach  Ships    1Every
- -------------------------------------------------------------------
A       1,788   44.00   48,729,539,000  27,253,657  4,361   2.3 Min
B       3,382   35.00   38,762,133,000  11,461,305  1,834   5.5 Min
C       2,768   15.00   16,612,342,000   6,001,569    960  10.5 Min
D       1,079    3.99    4,418,883,205   4,095,351    655  15.4 Min
E       1,252    2.00    2,214,979,050   1,769,153    283  35.6 Min
X         228    0.01       11,074,895      48,574      8  21.6 Hrs
- -------------------------------------------------------------------
ALL    10,497  100.00  110,748,950,000

It is interesting to note that there are 17,719,832 starships registered
in the Imperium; approximately 1,688 for every world.  The frequency of
flight operations at a Class A port is more hectic than the busiest of
present-day airports.  For a commercial starship, between 40% and 60% of
the ship's volume will be cargo or passengers; therefore a Class A starport
handles about 13.6 million tons of cargo a week.  This is quite a large
volume of trade, but not enough to feed a planet of billions.

Also note that the above tables are averages over the whole Imperium; not
every Class D port has a ship arriving every half hour.  Some facilities will
go for up to a day without seeing a vessel, but others will have departures
every few minutes.  A better picture could be had by examining a single
sector or subsector.

Let me know what you think ...

Wildstar

You want to take good care of your star, otherwise it gets all dark and icky.
/

#3415 Re: (3409) Imperial Economics

Steven Bonneville · 7 January 1992 · reply to #3409

The message which looked at getting some numbers for the Imperial economy
was very interesting.  You'd think that we'd have heard that the Imperium's
population was about seventeen quadrillion a few times before now, wouldn't
you?  I'd like to hear a little more about the assumptions built into this
rough estimate.  For instance, why the class-A ports get significantly more
traffic despite their reduced numbers.  How did you decide on the Imperial
tax rate?  What influences the GPP figures for a planet, and to what extent,
for those of us unfamiliar with whatever formula -- ditto with port facilities.

Do these figures assume a strong economy?  I know that part of the reason for
appointing Dulinor to Ilelish was to help relieve the region's persistent
economic recession.  Ilelish was a bit of a backwater, ignored by the
Empire in favor of the frontier and core regions.

If they still believe in deficit spending, the Imperial debt could be in the
QUADRILLIONS or worse -- that's BILLIONS of MCr!

Still, very interesting.  It gives one an idea of the sort of scale that
we're dealing with here....

- --Steve

(the following reprinted with permission of the Traveller's Aid Society)

:002-1115       Capital/Core:
"In a press conference held today in the Unity Hall in the Palace, the
 official Imperial budget was released for fiscal year 1115.
"There were no major surprises in the proclamation.  As expected, an
 economic aid package to Ilelish and Zarushagar sectors was cut to levels
 much lower than the original and highly controversial package proposed
 before the Moot by Duke Andrew of Liasdi.
"In response to questions regarding the Imperial decision, the spokesperson
 for the Ministry of the Treasury, Viscount Chandrasekhar, noted that the
 Imperium was committed to other expenses considered more likely to benefit
 the populace as a whole, not just in the depressed Ilelish region.
"He stated that among these expenses is the servicing and reduction of the
 Imperial debt, incurred by the military build-up and rebuilding efforts in
 Deneb and the Spinward Marches caused by the recently concluded Fifth
 Frontier War, and is a temporary problem which in no way threatens the
 stability of any Imperial regions."

#3443 Re: Imperial Economics

Derek Wildstar · 11 January 1992 · reply to #3415

OK, I'm going to try to clarify the analysis I did on the Imperium last
week, but first I have some more data to throw into the mix.

The Feb 1992 issue of Railfan and Railroad has an article on the Duluth,
Missabe, and Iron Range railroad.  The DM&IR has been around (in one form
or another) for over 100 years, and makes its living doing one thing: hauling
iron ore down from the Minnesota mountains (the Missabe and Iron Range mountains
to be exact) to the Lake Superior ore docks at Duluth and Two Harbors.  In its
worst year (1932, during the Great Depression) the DM&IR carried 1,500,000 tons
of ore.  Ten years later, in 1942, its peak wartime haulage was 42,788,199
tons.  The all-time high occurred in 1953, during the post-war boom, and was
a record 49,317,625 tons of ore.  Current traffic is around 20,000,000 tons.
Iron ore (at first, soft iron ore; but recently taconite pellets) is a good
bit more dense than the MegaTraveller "average" of 1 ton per cubic meter.

Assuming a number of mines, a good mining planet should be able to produce
ore exports of this magnitude (let's say about a million tons a week).  Most
planets would probably pre-process the ore to some degree (taconite pellets
are the end-result of pre-processing low-grade iron ore; the DM&IR's
customers started shipping this when the soft iron ore played out in the
late 50's and 60's).  Assuming that taconite is about two metric tons
to the cubic meter (and I actually have no idea what its density is), then
about 80 of my "standard" shiploads are generated each week for the ore
trade.

Now to get on to those questions.  First off, what about my starport
traffic breakdowns?  In particular, why do Class A ports handle so much of
the load?  Isn't the major distinction between a Class A and B port the
presence of starship building capability?

Well, yes.  The difference between a Class A and a Class B port is, by
definition, that the A port can build starships and the B cannot.  However,
we need to answer the question "Why doesn't every TL-9+ planet have a
starship construction capability?  After all, they have the technical
knowledge".  In the vast majority of cases, the answer has to be that it is
not economically feasable; in other words, such a yard would not make a
profit, given the expense of setting up and running one.  OK, so why can't
it make a profit?  Because there is a low demand for new ships.  One good
reason for this is that the yard is far enough off of the most important
and heavilly travelled trade lanes to make buyers hesitate.

Reversing the above argument, starship construction facilities are located
where the demand for new ships is highest.  Since I assumed that 90% of the
demand for new ships is to replace old ships, it follows that the highest
demand is where the largest numbers of ships are.  The largest number of
ships is likely to be at major producers or consumers of goods (generally
high population, high tech worlds) or at trade junction points, where
long-distance trade converges or crosses.

Therefore, Class A ports probably have the highest trade activity, too.

The logic for Class B ports is similar; they are located where the demand for
starship overhauls is high, but where the demand for new ships is not as
high.  These worlds are probably on trade routes, or are important enough
that many ships call, but not as much as the Class A ports.

Class B ports are ones that "almost" make Class A, but for some factor.
Trade activity is high, but not as high as that around a Class A port.

I decided that Class C ports were "average" (and this category probably
exhibits the largest variation in trade level of any of the categories).
Not enought traffic to justify construction of Class B or A shipyards, but
enough trade that all of the basics are present.

As Class B ports are to Class A, so are Class D to Class C.  For one reason
or another, these ports just don't measure up.

Class E are substandard; presumably there is not enough trade to justify the
expense of installing anything but the most minimal of facilities.  Remeber
that a Class E port is as low as it can get and still be considered a
functional port.

Class X indicates no port present.  I probably set the traffic level way too
high.  Alternatively, you can assume that these ships are "just passing
through" on their way to another destination, and have stopped for wilderness
refueling or as a midpoing layover on a double jump.

You can play around with the numbers; I think I provided enough information
that anyone can set some trade percentages and come up with some new traffic
levels.  The major point to remember is that Starports exist to support a
level of trade; they will be as large and comprehensive (and expensive) as
the customer base can support.

It bears pointing out that the levels of trade vary dramatically from one
region to another.  For example, the Solomani Rim sector has 25% of the
starship construction capacity in mapped space.  Old Expanses is next with
14%, while the Spinward Marches is somewhere around the middle with 2%.
Zarushag is at the bottom with 0.12%.  For reference, Core is about even with
the Marches (2%) while Vland is slightly better (3%), and Deneb is near the
bottom with 0.35%.  The tech level distribution also varies widely; although
the Massilia sector has only 4% of the starship construction capacity, it has
35% of the TL-16 Class A ports.

The Imperial tax rate came from some information given in Striker Book 2.
On page 38, it mentions that "The average expenditure of a nation or world
on its military is 3% of its GNP", and later mentioned that "On Imperial
worlds, roughly 30% of the total military budget goes to the Imperium for
maintenance of the Imperial military".  From my feelings about the way
the Imperium worked, I decided that the Imperial budget was mainly
defense spending, and created a budget accordingly.  I *DID* warn you that
it was made up out entirely out of my own head, didn't I?  I got the 1% figure
from 0.9% (military spending; actually 0.8856% as of the last budget) and
about 0.1% (non-military programs; actually 0.1144% in the budget).

"Local Credits" were converted to "Imperial Standard Credits" using the table
on page 39 of Striker (a matrix of TL and Starport type; no, I'm not going
to type it in right now, its already late).  Imperial Credits were assumed to
be based on a TL-15, Port A standard.

The Gross Planetary Products were created using the same rules (Page 38 of
Striker Book 2).  A base per-capita GPP is given (2kCr at TL-5, +2kCr per
TL over TL-5) on a table, and multiplied by the population of the world.
Six multipliers applied, depending on the trade status of the world (for
example, multiply the GPP of "Rich" worlds by 1.6).

In general, I thought the GPP rules to be reasonable.  The taxation rule is
a little over-simplified, but not bad.  If these rules are ever revised,
more multipliers might not be a bad idea, and taxation modifiers for
government type would also be a good ting.

The starport capacity figures are taken from Trillion Credit Squadron, where
they were created for an entirely different purpose.  (Actually, I am quite
shure that the TCS starport capacity figures were never meant to apply to
civillian shipping, and are *QUITE*WRONG* the way I have used them).  On the
other hand, they are also the only things available.

A table is given of government types and multipliers.  To figure the port
capacity, multiply the world population by the multiplier, and divide by
1000 (TCS, page 33).

On the other hand, I believe the construction time table given on the same
page is probably still accurate.

By the way, the analysis I originally posted, along with three statistical
abstracts of the data I used (basic frequency tables, sector statistics, and
starport/tech breakdowns) are currently stored in files here in my account.
Given these files, just about anyone with a spreadsheet program could do the
kind of speculation I have been doing.

Unfortunately, I do not have FTP access from here.  Does anybody want to
have me E-Mail them there, so you can put them up on a FTP server?

Wildstar

"... I'll see you on the Dark Side of the Moon!" -- Pink Floyd