all sorts of things...

A thread of 4 messages, 28 January 1992 to 31 January 1992, in the order they were sent.

#3581 all sorts of things...

Arthur Greene writes:

>                                             ... and in this case
>there are no serious iron or reserves with which to build local
>replacements. What I'm trying to say is that many planets don't have
>the industrial base to maintain themselves without interstellar trade.

They sure won't, but then, most of them can't support themselves WITH
interstellar trade.  The Ireland you describe would have no source of
Imperial credits to buy anything from offworld (in standard MT).
As to the question of lack of iron/nickel/metals in general that Ireland
has, most PLANETS have whole solar systems attached.  Many have ateroid
belts out there.  As was pointed out by Pournelle years ago, ONE medium
sized asteroid has more metal than the entire world's output for any
year in history.  Lack of raw materials should never be a problem.

>In any case, I'm sort of puzzled by these pirates. Why have they such
>crummy ships (and also why don't the splinters of the Imperium go and
>take them out)?

>What do all these pirates live on?

That's a very good question, which we have been asking ourselves since
we got hold of Hard Times.  (actually, I have been wondering since MT
came out, as MT made it MUCH harder to build a ship which could have a
real chance of being an effective pirate)


George William Herbert:

>    I'm in the process of coming up with a correction "diff" (new
>design tables et. al.) to fix the problems.  The only thing I don't
>know is wether it's worth it to include the real-world delta-V formula
>or not (delV = G * Isp * ln(Mr) ... ).  The simple solution is to leave
>his rules in place and fix the engines, but I'm not sure that the
>result would be very close to real-world...

So am I.  Whose rules in place?

>    BTW, one complaint that Steve had isn't valid; there is after all
>a good reason for using lift assisted launch vehicles... reusability.
>Recovering most rocket-type launch vehicles is impossible.  Not so with
>a LALV.
>    Note that I simply reject any presumption that it's possible to
>reuse normal rockets.  In my free time I design some of them, so I know
>much better 8-)

A rocket that rides down on it's jet can't be made reusable? Don't be
ridiculous!  Yes, I studied aerospace engineering, too.  While building
a realworld rocket HERE that can do that is pushing the limits of
reality, MOST Imperial worlds are considerably smaller than Terra, with
correspondingly lower surface G.  The mass-ratios required for
orbit-powered deorbit are MUCH more reasonable than here.
BTW, my beef with the LALV was NOT the concept.  It was the rules that
made the LALV less functional than a rocket.  Notice that under those
rules, I could build a rocket that could do a powered orbit-powered
deorbit with less fuel (by a factor of 5-7) than a LALV would require
just to get UP, much less back down. (GAWD, another run-on sentence
breaks free!)

>    Besides which, once we get scramjets properly in the design
>sequence, they have an actual Isp of as high as 1350 or so, three times
>that of a shuttle main engine.  See?  There _are_ good reasons... 8-)

Yes, I know about them. Hopefully, they'll have a specific impulse
higher than that within a few years after introduction.  Notice my
attempt to salvage the idea without rewriting the entire set of Low Tech
Spacecraft rules.

Paul Dugan :

>Would the IDPs be coming through with the piracy and war that is
>suppossed to be wreaking such havoc? Were these things being sent out
>for free? (note:I haven't yet aquired Hard Times, so I may be speaking
>from considerable ignorance)

Indications were that they were passed out for free, and that every
world in the Imperium had them in their databases.  Who cares whether
they still come in?  You already got the ones for TL5-15!

>The Soviets did have massive industial plants though- I don't think
>it's fair to call them a third-world nation. They fielded not just
>nukes, but a navy, submarines, tanks, etc, and had a burgeoning space
>program.
>Admeittedly, they havn't forgetten any of that stuff yet. But maybe
>all the smart-guys on the hi-tech worlds are moving off to where
>thier skills can be supported more luceratively (core areas).

It takes more than an army and navy to be a superpower.  Standard of
living might be nice, too.  ANd they STILL have all those things, as you
say.   USSR 70+ years and counting / Imperium dead after 5- years???
And I am sure that the number of people who will be willing to move away
from their homeworlds are not appreciably greater than the number of
people today who leave their home countries to seek better
opportunities.  Some do, for sure, but if they all did, then Germany
would have been depopulated after WW2.  VERY few people can pull up
their roots and walk away from everything they've ever known for the
CHANCE of better times elsewhere.  Most will stay and work for better
times here.

>Grav technology may  be simple, but it's much more expesive than
>wheels. (as the horse cart is than an auto). With the general finacial
>collapse that would seem to be enatiled by the disruption of trade, and
>the general malaise of war, and the fear about the future promoting
>depression (as we see today with buyers being cautious) I might be
>happy to give up my abaility to fly around the world in 20 minutes in
>my sleek megacredit speeder and just buy a cheap lo-tech ground car.

So, how much less does it cost to buy the wheel from an oxcart in the
USA today than it does to buy a tire for your automobile?  Wheels are
cheaper if you have a wheel factory, but if all your factories produce
Grav modules, wheels are going to be EXPENSIVE imports.  Cynthia has
designed several Grav vehicles that retail for about the same as a
modern automobile (use fuel cells and solar panels, and watch the price
of your speeder plummet!).  I doubt that wheeled vehicles would be
competitive.  Especially given the detail everyone else (GDW included)
seems to overlook.  NO ROADS!   The wheeled vehicle economy will never
work without roads for them to drive on (yes, four wheel drive offroad
vehicles exist - have you ever seen a four-wheel drive off-road
18wheeler?)  The roads would cost FAR more (llok at how much the USA
spends on them) than the grav vehicle factory ever could.

>Fusion plants raises another issue, which is that of the government
>financing of hi-tech products. Industrail policy would avryu from world
>to world, but probably be present in some form. But with budgets
>becoming tight, the money that used to go into such hi-tech research
>would go into more sustainable,  immediately practical technologies.

Actually, given MT rules set, fusion plants are one of the most
practical ways of getting energy.  Again, tooling up to build the
alternatives costs money (lots of it).  If you have to have money,
anyway, build something that is better than obsolete junk.

>If the governement stops subsidizing the local fusion plant because it
>can no longer afford to do so (or the knowhow has gone off-world) or
>the spare parts arent being made, all your hi-tech gadgets will be
>useless.

Why should the government subsidize local fusion plants?  They cost
somewhere in the range of 33Cr per Kw.  In the USA, power plants of all
types cost in the neighborhood of $1000 per KW.

>The soviets are experinceing this now with their reactors (according to
>recent news reports). Their refurbishing old parts, but who knows
>how long that will last.

Probably forever, or until teh fuel cores burn out.  No components of a
nuclear plant are all that hard to make, if you have basic machine
tools.

>BTW where are hi-tech, low water worlds getting their hydrogen?

Probably from a moon (theirs, or another planet insystem's) with ice.
Or from a carbonaceous-chrondite asteroid.  A 3Km ateroid would ahve
about 500,000,000 tons of hydrogen in it.  That could keep a terawatt
worth of fusion plants running for maybe 1500 years, even a MT's abysmal
efficiencies.

>But our navy isn't undergoing a major financial crunch, and facing
>a major military threat at the moment. Hard times would be a feedback
>loop: the markets go down, the technology skips a beat, causing more
>finacial instability and so on.

Neither are most of theirs.  And why didn't this happen in the
Depression, if it so likely?

>I've always understood tech to be an average for the population.
>Reducing the number of hi-tech items by 90% means only the wealthy
>or the government then could have them. I imagine the governement would
>do that in such perilous times (witness rationing during WWII).
>
>Plus there's going to be a lot fewer wealthy, since I doubtmany of them
>were hoarding hard currency, but had alot of paper (or silicon) assets.

Check out World Builder's Handbook for guidelines on who has the
High-Tech.  In most TL15 worlds, most people would be living at TL14 (or
perhaps TL13).  Which is still a whole lot higher than TL10!  Even if
90% of it evaporated overnight, they probably could rebuild all of it in
5 years.
And why should you stop being wealthy because the Stock Market crashed?
As Sam Walton said after losing $500,000,000 in the Stock Market
collapse a few years ago, "it was paper yesterday, it's still paper
today."
If you own a factory, it won't evaporate just because the Stock Market
does.  If you have a factory, and no cash, BARTER!  Your people will
work for room and board if times are that bad, and you can provide them
by trading the products of your factories for the products of other
people's factories.

>Was all this technology in the hands of the average german or in
>the military. There were no commercial jetliners for long after the
>germans developed the jet. This is an interesting thread, though:
>as worlds going through this diffculty might turn to such command
>economy alternatives (i.e. Nazi autarky) to speed up relief.

Good point.  Though notice the WBH again.  Most of the state-of-the-art
is in the hands of the elite on most worlds anyway.  But Germany's
general TL was higher in 1939 than in 1919, in any case.  Remember the
Volkswagon?  Remember the Sanger antipodal bomber?
And as I said on a post this past AM, we (Cynthia and I) expect to see a
LOT of Htlers and Stalins and Roosevelts in the next few years of the
Imperium.

>I wanted to address another issue though, and that is the vilani
>cultural influence, which must be prevalent to some extent throughout
>the imperium in general. If the smart-sophonts have hightailed it out
>of the dangerous areas, it would leave alot of people behind who
>wouldn't know were to begin to understand a tech 15 blueprint, and who
>might not want to when they could just slap together an oxcart (or run
>a driveshaft out of their failed grav-vehicle).

I doubt that the smart sophonts did, but the Vilani heritage CANNOT be
that strong, since the same problem existed in teh Long Night.  Plenty
of time for evolution to wipe out that particular mind-set.  Note the
troubles Vland has had in reinstating it even in their own sector.

And if it were common, then the lads left behind would just know how to
do one thing, which WILL NOT BE how to build wheeled vehicles!  They are
far more likely to have cookbook knowledge of Grav engineering than of
wheeled vehicle design (which they haven't used in 11,000 years).

>Maybe the 5-level techdrop is too extreme, maybe it isn't extreme
>enough.
>It would seem to be a good way to quantify the general chaos of the
>hard times period. Remeber that the rich on the necounter tables always
>did
>have +2 TL items, and the peasants -2 TL. (or therebaouts.)
>I'm going to get hard times soo and give it a looksee. It sounds
>interesting.

The five Tl drop is ludicrous. The assumption that such a drop would
last for more than a VERY short period is even more ludicrous.
HOWEVER, the MOST LUDICROUS THING TRAVELLER (in any incarnation) HAS
EVER DONE IS TO ASSUME THAT "PEASANTS" WILL BE COMMON IN THE
IMPERIUM!!!!!!!!

- -- Via DLG Pro v0.985b

[email removed]

I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
                                    --W. von Braun

#3598 Re: (3581) all sorts of things...

Steve Higginbotham writes:
>
> That's a very good question, which we have been asking ourselves since
> we got hold of Hard Times.  (actually, I have been wondering since MT
> came out, as MT made it MUCH harder to build a ship which could have a
> real chance of being an effective pirate)

How so?  It looks about the same to me...at least if you consider High Guard
as part of your pre-MT framework.

> Paul Dugan writes:
>
> >Would the IDPs be coming through with the piracy and war that is
> >suppossed to be wreaking such havoc? Were these things being sent out
> >for free? (note:I haven't yet aquired Hard Times, so I may be speaking
> >from considerable ignorance)
>
> Indications were that they were passed out for free, and that every
> world in the Imperium had them in their databases.  Who cares whether
> they still come in?  You already got the ones for TL5-15!

Although it has since been picked up by Chuck Gannon (and hence Challenge and
Hard Times), I'm the one who came up with the IDP name.  I figured that they
were essentially given away free by the Imperium in the interest of maintaining
a healthy economy to tax...

> >Grav technology may  be simple, but it's much more expesive than
> >wheels. (as the horse cart is than an auto). With the general finacial
> >collapse that would seem to be enatiled by the disruption of trade, and
> >the general malaise of war, and the fear about the future promoting
> >depression (as we see today with buyers being cautious) I might be
> >happy to give up my abaility to fly around the world in 20 minutes in
> >my sleek megacredit speeder and just buy a cheap lo-tech ground car.
>
> So, how much less does it cost to buy the wheel from an oxcart in the
> USA today than it does to buy a tire for your automobile?  Wheels are
> cheaper if you have a wheel factory, but if all your factories produce
> Grav modules, wheels are going to be EXPENSIVE imports.  Cynthia has
> designed several Grav vehicles that retail for about the same as a
> modern automobile (use fuel cells and solar panels, and watch the price
> of your speeder plummet!).  I doubt that wheeled vehicles would be
> competitive.  Especially given the detail everyone else (GDW included)
> seems to overlook.  NO ROADS!   The wheeled vehicle economy will never
> work without roads for them to drive on (yes, four wheel drive offroad
> vehicles exist - have you ever seen a four-wheel drive off-road
> 18wheeler?)  The roads would cost FAR more (llok at how much the USA
> spends on them) than the grav vehicle factory ever could.

Hmmmm....I don't know about that for sure, Steve.  While I didn't go into it
extensively at the time, some back of the envelope calculations had me
convinced that bulk freight transport by grav vehicle probably becomes
economical with the increased fusion plant output at TL13.  Below that level,
you would see increasing amounts of people and high value/low weight cargoes
moving by grav vehicle from TL9 through TL12.  Bulk cargo, though, would be
easier/cheaper to move in wheeled vehicles on roads between population and
distribution centers.  Think of it as a railroad analogy.  There will also be
other special purpose applications for wheeled and tracked vehicles even at
higher TLs, so the technology won't be completely forgotten.

Rob Dean


> >I wanted to address another issue though, and that is the vilani
> >cultural influence, which must be prevalent to some extent throughout
> >the imperium in general. If the smart-sophonts have hightailed it out
> >of the dangerous areas, it would leave alot of people behind who
> >wouldn't know were to begin to understand a tech 15 blueprint, and who
> >might not want to when they could just slap together an oxcart (or run
> >a driveshaft out of their failed grav-vehicle).
>
> I doubt that the smart sophonts did, but the Vilani heritage CANNOT be
> that strong, since the same problem existed in teh Long Night.  Plenty
> of time for evolution to wipe out that particular mind-set.  Note the
> troubles Vland has had in reinstating it even in their own sector.
>
> And if it were common, then the lads left behind would just know how to
> do one thing, which WILL NOT BE how to build wheeled vehicles!  They are
> far more likely to have cookbook knowledge of Grav engineering than of
> wheeled vehicle design (which they haven't used in 11,000 years).
>
> >Maybe the 5-level techdrop is too extreme, maybe it isn't extreme
> >enough.
> >It would seem to be a good way to quantify the general chaos of the
> >hard times period. Remeber that the rich on the necounter tables always
> >did
> >have +2 TL items, and the peasants -2 TL. (or therebaouts.)
> >I'm going to get hard times soo and give it a looksee. It sounds
> >interesting.
>
> The five Tl drop is ludicrous. The assumption that such a drop would
> last for more than a VERY short period is even more ludicrous.
> HOWEVER, the MOST LUDICROUS THING TRAVELLER (in any incarnation) HAS
> EVER DONE IS TO ASSUME THAT "PEASANTS" WILL BE COMMON IN THE
> IMPERIUM!!!!!!!!
>
> - -- Via DLG Pro v0.985b
>
> [email removed]
>
> I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
>                                     --W. von Braun
>

#3621 People pulling up roots

[email removed] (Steve Higginbotham) writes:
>
> And I am sure that the number of people who will be willing to move away
> from their homeworlds are not appreciably greater than the number of
> people today who leave their home countries to seek better
> opportunities.  Some do, for sure, but if they all did, then Germany
> would have been depopulated after WW2.  VERY few people can pull up
> their roots and walk away from everything they've ever known for the
> CHANCE of better times elsewhere.

Make that East Germany, and then guess why the Berlin Wall went up.  In
1989, the people of East Germany finally figured out, in large numbers,
how to get out without crossing the Wall.  I'd say that it was more than
"VERY few people" that did indeed pull up their roots and head for the
West for the chance of better times.

- --
 "Keyboard?  How quaint!" - M. Scott

 Adrian Hurt			     |	JANET:  [email removed]
 UUCP: ..!ukc!cs.hw.ac.uk!adrian     |  ARPA:   [email removed]

#3633 Defending Hard Times TL Drop

First a  general question: is "Traveler 3" something that's actually
in the works?

Steve Higginbotham writes:

>came out, as MT made it MUCH harder to build a ship which could have a
>real chance of being an effective pirate)

Actually, I've always wondered who it was that would construct (and finance)
such specialty ships as the pirate corsair: or do governments give them away
to privateers (legal pirates).

Also, there is absolutely no provision for how a scientist is supposed
to meet the operating expenses and payments for his or her Lab Ship.

> It takes more than an army and navy to be a superpower.  Standard of
> living might be nice, too.  ANd they STILL have all those things, as you
> say.   USSR 70+ years and counting / Imperium dead after 5- years???

The USSR lived for its 70 years largely off of the capital it had to
begin with. Once that basicly ran out, (and assorted other problems)
the decline we see now has come pretty quickly. The death of the imperium
starts in 1116, so its actually more like 10 years.


> And I am sure that the number of people who will be willing to move away
> from their homeworlds are not appreciably greater than the number of
> people today who leave their home countries to seek better
> opportunities.  Some do, for sure, but if they all did, then Germany
> would have been depopulated after WW2.  VERY few people can pull up
> their roots and walk away from everything they've ever known for the
> CHANCE of better times elsewhere.  Most will stay and work for better
> times here.

We're dealing with a colonial situation in most cases. Which lends
credence to the one-product mentality. Witness how well colonies
did after the British decided to pack it in, leaving them
with one resource. Now if nobody can ship that one resource...

If the imperial structure is retreating (voluntarily, as in the case of the
vilani megacorps, or involuntarily, as piracy and mayhem increase), I would
think that the best and brightest (and wealthiest) would hightail it to
where their skills could be better rewarded. Of course not all, but more
in tough times.


> of your speeder plummet!).  I doubt that wheeled vehicles would be
> competitive.  Especially given the detail everyone else (GDW included)
> seems to overlook.  NO ROADS!   The wheeled vehicle economy will never
> work without roads for them to drive on (yes, four wheel drive offroad
> vehicles exist - have you ever seen a four-wheel drive off-road
> 18wheeler?)  The roads would cost FAR more (look at how much the USA
> spends on them) than the grav vehicle factory ever could.

I find it hard to accept the non-presence of roads, mostly because
I don't see grav-vehicles totally replacing road transport
except at maybe the highest tech levels. Look at the world today: sure we
have lots of cars, but in china the auto is a rarity, and most folks
travel by low tech bicycles. The market for bikes in the CIS is
expanding, according to recent news. You could keep the grav-vehicle
factory running, but they won't be as affordable.

One should keep in mind, of course, that grav texhnology is not the
only high technology, and that while maybe that one perhaps will
not be readily converted down, other might be more likely.
Also, if these plants ARE so hi-tech, I'm sure they wouln't have as
much difficulty retooling, as hitech robots and computers and so
on are most likely MORE versatile (until they wear out, of course).


>>But our navy isn't undergoing a major financial crunch, and facing
>>a major military threat at the moment. Hard times would be a feedback
>>loop: the markets go down, the technology skips a beat, causing more
>>financial instability and so on.
>
> Neither are most of theirs.  And why didn't this happen in the
> Depression, if it so likely?

Because the depression was fiddlesticks compared to hard times.
Everything is magnified: a bigger economy, more inflated (which seems to
be an assumption of the problems leading up to the rebellion, that
the imperium was already running on inertia maybe for the past 100
years (the 1000 year empire at 1100) as was the rule of man before
the long Night.) There is a bigger war, with worse effects, and so on.
I mean three major megacorporations just up and LEFT most of the imperium.
Sure they'll sell their assets (some), but who can afford to buy them
as they watch their plastic credits become valueless.
Imagine if AT&T, IBM, and general motors all go out of business
at the same time (or say that they are giving up on america to
move to europe, because of some bizzare ideological faith in restoring
the Roman Empire :-)) Most of their employees decide to go with them,
and they pack up a considerable amount of their capital assets
(well, maybe AT&T is bad conceptual example).


> Check out World Builder's Handbook for guidelines on who has the
> High-Tech.  In most TL15 worlds, most people would be living at TL14 (or
> perhaps TL13).  Which is still a whole lot higher than TL10!  Even if
> 90% of it evaporated overnight, they probably could rebuild all of it in
> 5 years.

In the collapse, though, the disparities would become much more
pronounced. Drop tech by one, say, overall, and the magnification
of this drop pulls the middle class level quite possibly down to 10.
(especially if the anti-grav cities (TL14) crash:-) Maybe there's
no computer virus but how bout a superconductor virus per Niven :-))


> And why should you stop being wealthy because the Stock Market crashed?
> As Sam Walton said after losing $500,000,000 in the Stock Market
> collapse a few years ago, "it was paper yesterday, it's still paper
> today."

Not just the Stock Market crashed, the MARKET crashed. That is, the
imperial credit (no doubt inflated anyway) is worthless, so all the
assets measure in it are worthless. I don't know how Hard Times deals
with the imperial monetary system, but if it doesn't foresee its failure,
then I'd have to agree it's a bit whacked.

This brings up a problem I've always had with the kind of interstellar
market and finance conceived of in traveller, in that I find it hard to
believe it exists, when it takes at least two weeks to find out
what's going on the next planet over. But I'm using the assumption in
all of theses discussions. Does anyone have any ideas about
how interstellar fiances could really work?


> If you own a factory, it won't evaporate just because the Stock Market
> does.  If you have a factory, and no cash, BARTER!  Your people will
> work for room and board if times are that bad, and you can provide them
> by trading the products of your factories for the products of other
> people's factories.

Aside from barter being extremely inefficient,
are we assuming that every TL15 world has a grav vehicle factory?
Does every one have a mini-fusion plant factory? does every one
have an anagathics lab? a consumer electronics plant? While the level
of specialization might not be on the "left-handed egg spoon" level
it's still going to be pretty high, I'd guess. Factoring in the amount
of comparative advantage various world-types and government types,
and bizzare cultural factors might produce. ("We selflessly sacrifice
our children for the good of the grav vehicle electrostatic
rain zapping field plant" :-))


> And as I said on a post this past AM, we (Cynthia and I) expect to see a
> LOT of Htlers and Stalins and Roosevelt in the next few years of the
> Imperium.

Right on. (And thanks for including Roosevelt in there :-)) But ultimately
a Stalinist type recovery isn't going to produce long term-growth,
and the imperium's already been running on a flawed base.

Hitler just might very well get everyone making ground cars again.
He was opposed to the International style of architecture (a technical
advance) for ideological reasons. Maybe the scapegoats will be the technology
brought by those evil imperial traders 400 odd years ago (makes as much
sense as blaming Jews for killing somebody 2000 years ago). Another
potentail scapegoat: "those vilani who didn't take off, who are still
running the factories we think we need so much".


> And if it were common, then the lads left behind would just know how to
> do one thing, which WILL NOT BE how to build wheeled vehicles!  They are
> far more likely to have cookbook knowledge of Grav engineering than of
> wheeled vehicle design (which they haven't used in 11,000 years).

You're right of course. But my main problem with this is that the grav
vehicles will be unaffordable to the average person who formerly
could afford them. Poverty is expensive, and the chaos will not just
drive down income, but drive up prices.

> The five Tl drop is ludicrous. The assumption that such a drop would
> last for more than a VERY short period is even more ludicrous.
> HOWEVER, the MOST LUDICROUS THING TRAVELLER (in any incarnation) HAS
> EVER DONE IS TO ASSUME THAT "PEASANTS" WILL BE COMMON IN THE
> IMPERIUM!!!!!!!!

I see alot of justification for your objections to the extreme
tech drop, and I think I agree that it wouldn't be very long lasting,
and maybe not as extreme.
It would take a while to occur, though, but I don't see it as only taking
the five years of hard times.

I disagree very much about the presence of peasants, remembering that
peasant is a relative term. (even not remembering that: in our own
world, the most populous nation i think could still be described as
having a great number of "peasants".) But peasant is relative to the
level of the middle class. Sure you and I have computers, nice cars,
central heating, etc, but there are people in america with only radios,
or outhouses, or have no electricity. They weren't that "common" anyway,
only appearing on a 2 in 36 chance if not mistaken.


paul duggan