TechnoEconomics

A thread of 3 messages, 29 May 1994 to 8 June 1994, in the order they were sent.

#7816 TechnoEconomics

>I *get* the *economic* fluctuation, what I don't get is how *technological*
>ability gets tied to it!

Try this: The knowledge exists, but is still very expensive. An example
might be our very own space program. How many projects have been cancelled
or postponed because of budget constraints? (With the number of NASA people
on the list I'm sure I'll get an answer ;)

Money funds research. Research advances Technology. Therefore, economic
fluctuations will affect the development of technology.

As has been pointed out, in a severe economic slump, technology can decline
(We can by 10 TL10 ships for the price of 2 TL11 ships? Let's go retro!)
because of reduced demand. WHile only a severe catastrophe can reduce a
world's TL significantly, it can be stalled and degenerated by economics.

A final note: If you've  played Sid Meier's Civilization game, or games
similar toit, you know that economics plays a big part in your
technological advancement. Sure, you may know how to build the Hoover Dam,
but how long will it take to save enough money to build it? To be sure,
Civilation isn't the most precise model of population advancement, but it
is based on principles that hold through today and tomorrow.


Creativity over Originality.
Consistency is a Flaw.
J Roberson      [email removed]                 [email removed]

#7902 All: Techno-economics

Gentlesophonts:

J Roberson [email removed] writes:

> >I *get* the *economic* fluctuation, what I don't get is how *technological*
> >ability gets tied to it!
>
> Try this: The knowledge exists, but is still very expensive.

Right, but we're not talking about knowledge here, we're talking about
the ability to *produce* a certain level of technology, i.e. industry.
(Tech level 15 *knowledge* ought to be available from your local library
data terminal on most Imperial worlds.)  For the ability to *produce* a
certain level of technology to `go away' you'd have to have a *severe*
economic down turn like the Long Night or the Viral Collapse.

> An example
> might be our very own space program. How many projects have been cancelled
> or postponed because of budget constraints? (With the number of NASA people
> on the list I'm sure I'll get an answer ;)

As one of those people and a long-time space advocate I have to admit that
*no* space project has been cancelled or postponed due to budgetary
constraints.  Budget decisions represent a redirection of *priorities*,
not a lack of economic resources.  In the same period that space technology
has been virtually stagnant (c1970 to the present) there have been
*tremendous* advances in computer, medical and biological technologies.
(Of course these fields haven't had the `advantage' of almost complete
government subsidy that the space program has had.)

> Money funds research. Research advances Technology. Therefore, economic
> fluctuations will affect the development of technology.

Yes, but it won't affect the ability to produce technology in the Imperium
where the higher tech knowledge already exists.  Neither does it explain
*reductions* in the ability to produce a certain level of technology.

A better example (Oh no, I'm making Hans's point!) might be to compare Detroit
to the Japanese automakers.  Because Nissan, Toyota and Honda were able to
produce higher quality automobiles more efficiently there was nearly a
*de facto* tech level drop in the US.  Nevertheless, even this example
only concerns a particular industry which might explain a drop in one
of the *WBH* tech level specialty areas.  An overall tech level drop would
have to affect *several* sectors at the same time.  IMHO, that could only
be caused by a major economic catastrophe.


James Kundert [email removed] asks:

>   All I ask is that the participants start editing in a more
> ruthless fashion

How am I doing?  :-)

Happy Travelling,

David Johnson
Houston, Texas, USA

#7906 All: Technocracy

David Johnson) writes:
>Andy Lilly [email removed] writes:
>
>>So in theory the world might be rated TL11 but actually still
>>retain (or have built up to) TL12 or TL13 in their starship production.
>
>This is a good point but one might wonder then why Sacnoth has not made
>similar efforts to push its space TL to 14.

For the same reason Entrope isn't TL 15: Economic problems at a level of
detailing that we haven't bothered to go into. The facts we can't get
away from is that Gram is TL 11 (overall) in 1110 and Sacnoth is Tl 12
(again overall). Apart from that we can do anything as long as we think it
makes sense. Like make Gram TL 12 in Space Technology (and even Sacnoth
TL 11 in space technology if you feel that is necessary to explain why
they aren't top dog). But to make Sacnoth TL 14 in space technology (or
in anything) is to magnify the very problems you complain about.

>>To apply this to a wider range of products, even should your own world be
>>TL11 and unable to supply TL12 replacements for your bought-in TL12
>>thingummy-jigs, there's no reason why you shouldn't buy, steal or smuggle
>>such from other worlds.
>
>Maybe, but it's tough to fight a prolonged war this way against an opponent
>who can produce his own goods internallly.

So? With imported tech you may be able to win a short war against someone
who can produce what you have to import even if you can't win a long one.
With no imports you'd lose even a short war. So the imports makes sense
in any case.

>I hope I've distinguished the difference between corporate government and
>a feudal technocracy in my prior post in response to Hans.

Unfortunately I haven't seen it. Could you mail me a copy if you still have
it on file? I'm particularily interested in your response to my comparisons
of various features of feudal, corporate, and feudal tech societies.

>Right, but we're not talking about knowledge here, we're talking about
>the ability to *produce* a certain level of technology, i.e. industry.
>(Tech level 15 *knowledge* ought to be available from your local library
>data terminal on most Imperial worlds.)  For the ability to *produce* a
>certain level of technology to `go away' you'd have to have a *severe*
>economic down turn like the Long Night or the Viral Collapse.

But why do you assume that the TL digit of an UWP has anything to do with
_ability_ to produce? To me it makes just as much sense that the TL is
the level of technology actually produced, regardless of capability. That's
why I think an economic downturn can affect TL; when it's no longer
profitable to build something the society stops doing it, even though they
still could if they had to  -  and we have a TL decline.

>>An example
>>might be our very own space program. How many projects have been cancelled
>>or postponed because of budget constraints? (With the number of NASA people
>>on the list I'm sure I'll get an answer ;)
>
>As one of those people and a long-time space advocate I have to admit that
>*no* space project has been cancelled or postponed due to budgetary
>constraints.  Budget decisions represent a redirection of *priorities*,
>not a lack of economic resources.

It dosen't reflect the fact that the ressources to do both isn't there?

>A better example (Oh no, I'm making Hans's point!) might be to compare Detroit
>to the Japanese automakers.  Because Nissan, Toyota and Honda were able to
>produce higher quality automobiles more efficiently there was nearly a
>*de facto* tech level drop in the US.  Nevertheless, even this example
>only concerns a particular industry which might explain a drop in one
>of the *WBH* tech level specialty areas.

And if a number of these coincided?

>An overall tech level drop would
>have to affect *several* sectors at the same time.  IMHO, that could only
>be caused by a major economic catastrophe.

That brings us to a dead end. I think it could be caused by less than
catastrophic declines in economic affairs, but then, I'm profoundly ignorant
of economics. It's mostly SF to me ;-). So by now we're down to different
articles of faith. So I'm signing off the 'technological cycles' debate
unless someone else interjects new blood. You don't think they're possible,
I do. End of story. I'd much rather get on with finding out just how a
feudal technocracy actually works.


      Hans Rancke
University of Copenhagen
     [email removed]
- ------------
        "A  subsector  official  pompously states that the
        subsector  armed  forces  have  four Kinunir class
        ships in service,  each with enough troop strength
        to put down any military operations that threathen
        the peace of the Imperium."

                        ---Adventure 1, The Kinunir