Re: Stable Tech. vs. Stale Tech

At the risk of adding flames to the fire, here's my $0.002 (yes, a tenth
of 2 cents) worth.  I'm not meaning to shoot down anyone's ideas, just
sharing in the chin-scratching and bull session.

Mark F. Cook [email removed] writes:
> advance (which is exponential), the rate at which the human race advances
> technologically should 'go vertical' in less than 300 years.

One possible problem with Vinge's supposition is that it fails to take
into account that people must apply the technology that has been
discovered, and this takes time.  The biggest limiting factor to the
growth of technology, as I see it, are the factors of societal
communication and understanding.  It takes time for engineers to
incorporate new ideas, it takes time to develop proficiency in their
use, it takes time to bring people up to speed, and large projects where
many new technological advancements are put together have a high risk of
failure.  Look at the failure of the first n Mariner space probes, the
incredible cost of the Space Shuttle, the Sergeant York program, Hubble,
Galileo, the Soviet Mars moon probes, and the NeXT computer.

I feel that, since there is a limited capacity and speed to which humans
can (or WANT to) absorb information and knowledge, and there is a
limited speed with which Systems Technology can be pushed forward, that:

	[[[ James' Maxim of Technology Advancement ]]]

	You can't push technology faster than it can be
	communicated, understood, incorporated, and perfected.

To bring 10,000 worlds, or even 100 along with you, vastly slows the
pace of technology growth, and results in much duplication of effort.
In today's world, even bringing the 50 United States, Europe, and Japan
along with you on a world with instant communication, takes time.  How
many wonderful new ideas have been sitting on desks for 20 years waiting
for the rest of technology to catch up?

Regarding these facts, I've always had a really difficult time believing
that a structure as large as the Imperium could ever exist as a single
political entity - a heavily divided Imperium makes more sense to me
from the standpoint of technological innovation and parallel discovery.

Yes, we are in the age of technological growth.  I see advancements in
complexity going exponential, but I see systems technology growing
linearly.  I see improvements in computer speed growing exponentially,
but the software technology bogging down in complexity management.

What about ceramic high-temperature turbine-powered drive-by-wire
automobiles? One innovation at a time, please! Serial, not parallel
improvement.  New ideas on a proven base.  It's they way human
engineering and technology transfer works.  The human mind has a limited
capacity to absorb and use new ideas.

Enough ramblings and food for thought.  I'm not 100% committed to all
these ideas, the floor is open for discussion...

James

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