Adrian Hurt:
>Make that East Germany, and then guess why the Berlin Wall went up. In
>1989, the people of East Germany finally figured out, in large numbers,
>how to get out without crossing the Wall. I'd say that it was more
>than "VERY few people" that did indeed pull up their roots and head for
>the West for the chance of better times.
Actually, most of those people left germany to go to Germany. They did
not leave their homeland to live among strangers, but rather moved
across the street to live among kinfolk. A better example is Germany
after WW1, when the economy collapsed much more thoroughly than the East
German economy did: very few people left, they just rebuilt on the
ruins.
Duggan:
>Actually, I've always wondered who it was that would construct (and
>finance) such specialty ships as the pirate corsair: or do governments
>give them away to privateers (legal pirates).
So have I...
>Also, there is absolutely no provision for how a scientist is supposed
>to meet the operating expenses and payments for his or her Lab Ship.
Or a noble his yacht, a hunter his safari ship, etc.
>The USSR lived for its 70 years largely off of the capital it had to
>begin with. Once that basicly ran out, (and assorted other problems)
>the decline we see now has come pretty quickly. The death of the
>imperium starts in 1116, so its actually more like 10 years.
Well, no. Most of those factories that the Germans failed to destroy in
WW2 were built during the Soviet era, not previously. The Soviet Union
collapsed from the strain of trying to maintain the largest military
establishment in the world with the third or fourth largest economy.
>We're dealing with a colonial situation in most cases. Which lends
>credence to the one-product mentality. Witness how well colonies
>did after the British decided to pack it in, leaving them
>with one resource. Now if nobody can ship that one resource...
Well, no, again. Most of those Imperial worlds have been settled for
5000+ years. Even the Spinward Marches has been settled for 700+
years. Not very colonial anymore.
>I find it hard to accept the non-presence of roads, mostly because
>I don't see grav-vehicles totally replacing road transport
>except at maybe the highest tech levels. Look at the world today: sure
>we have lots of cars, but in china the auto is a rarity, and most folks
>travel by low tech bicycles. The market for bikes in the CIS is
>expanding, according to recent news. You could keep the grav-vehicle
>factory running, but they won't be as affordable.
But notice that we have had cars for about 100 years, and they have
replaced all older forms of personal transport in the USA for any
commercial use. The Imperium has had grav technology for 10,000 YEARS.
And why shouldn't grav vehicles be as affordable? And if they are not,
why assume that wheeled vehicles are MORE affordable?
>One should keep in mind, of course, that grav texhnology is not the
>only high technology, and that while maybe that one perhaps will
>not be readily converted down, other might be more likely.
>Also, if these plants ARE so hi-tech, I'm sure they wouln't have as
>much difficulty retooling, as hitech robots and computers and so
>on are most likely MORE versatile (until they wear out, of course).
If your industry is that good, why BOTHER retooling? And if you do
retool, why retool to produce archaic equipment? Why not retool to
produce more modern equipment?
>Because the depression was fiddlesticks compared to hard times.
>Everything is magnified: a bigger economy, more inflated (which seems
>to be an assumption of the problems leading up to the rebellion, that
>the imperium was already running on inertia maybe for the past 100
>years (the 1000 year empire at 1100) as was the rule of man before
>the long Night.) There is a bigger war, with worse effects, and so on.
It was? How about Germany in the 1930's? And the number of members of
an economy does NOT determine the severity of the collapse. The number
of members only affects the number of people affected.
And why do you believe the Imperium was running on inertia for the last
100 years? Published material shows that the Imperium has made more
technological progress in the last 100 years than in the 500 before that
(up two TLs (15 & 16) as opposed to one (14)).
>I mean three major megacorporations just up and LEFT most of the
>imperium.
>Sure they'll sell their assets (some), but who can afford to buy them
>as they watch their plastic credits become valueless.
>Imagine if AT&T, IBM, and general motors all go out of business
>at the same time (or say that they are giving up on america to
>move to europe, because of some bizzare ideological faith in restoring
>the Roman Empire :-)) Most of their employees decide to go with them,
>and they pack up a considerable amount of their capital assets
>(well, maybe AT&T is bad conceptual example).
You overlook the detail that when the Megacorporations packed up, they
DID NOT take their assets with them. They traded assets around with
Megacorps that were not moving. The factories were all still in place
afterwards, so who cares who they list as the owner?
And if "plastic credits" become valueless, then there is always
"nationalization".
>In the collapse, though, the disparities would become much more
>pronounced. Drop tech by one, say, overall, and the magnification
>of this drop pulls the middle class level quite possibly down to 10.
>(especially if the anti-grav cities (TL14) crash:-) Maybe there's
>no computer virus but how bout a superconductor virus per Niven :-))
Why should they become more pronounced? Admittedly, the elite will
retain most of their old tech level, and the poor are the first
affected, but that should not drop things down 4 TLs. Four TLs is
comparable to an economic collapse from the present back to medieval
conditions. Can anyone seriously envision ANY economic conditions that
could do that? Short of a large scale nuclear exchange, with extra
missiles fired at every non-involved country in the world for good
measure.
>Not just the Stock Market crashed, the MARKET crashed. That is, the
>imperial credit (no doubt inflated anyway) is worthless, so all the
>assets measure in it are worthless. I don't know how Hard Times deals
>with the imperial monetary system, but if it doesn't foresee its
>failure, then I'd have to agree it's a bit whacked.
What makes you think the Imperial Credit is inflated? There is NOTHING
in published material to even HINT at that. And note that the German
Mark was in fact worthless in the 30's, but Germany did not go through a
collapse back into the middle ages, and Germany's few remaining
factories did not cease to exist because the Mark was worthless. German
bread and cows did not become worthless when the Mark did, either.
Actually, when the currency becomes worthless, the "assets measured in
it" are worth far more, not less. If money is worthless, only
"things" have value.
>This brings up a problem I've always had with the kind of interstellar
>market and finance conceived of in traveller, in that I find it hard to
>believe it exists, when it takes at least two weeks to find out
>what's going on the next planet over. But I'm using the assumption in
>all of theses discussions. Does anyone have any ideas about
>how interstellar fiances could really work?
Actually only one week. X-boats and the IISS's courier systems update
databases continuously, so an event within 2 parsecs or so will be added
into your databases one week later.
I suspect that most imperial transactions use Debit cards which keep
track of bank balance/assets on the card itself. Along with updates
to/from central offices via X-boat/courier.
>Aside from barter being extremely inefficient,
>are we assuming that every TL15 world has a grav vehicle factory?
>Does every one have a mini-fusion plant factory? does every one
>have an anagathics lab? a consumer electronics plant? While the level
>of specialization might not be on the "left-handed egg spoon" level
>it's still going to be pretty high, I'd guess. Factoring in the amount
>of comparative advantage various world-types and government types,
>and bizzare cultural factors might produce. ("We selflessly sacrifice
>our children for the good of the grav vehicle electrostatic
>rain zapping field plant" :-))
There are four TL15 worlds in the Spinward Marches. All are at least 10
parsecs apart. It is unlikely that transporting any significant
fraction of their needs among themselves is possible. They almost
certainly are as close to self-sufficient as it is possible to be. They
probably import limited amounts of RARE raw materials, but it is
unlikely that something so fundamental as a fusion plant would be
imported, if only because all these worlds build starships. Is there
anything fundamental to the American Way of Life that MUST be imported?
By "fundamental" I mean something that would cause the USA to collapse
back into barbarism if the supply were interrupted for more than a year
or two.
>Right on. (And thanks for including Roosevelt in there :-)) But
>ultimately a Stalinist type recovery isn't going to produce long
>term-growth, and the imperium's already been running on a flawed base.
I wasn't referring to a "Stalinist type recovery", but to the "Strong
Leader" syndrome. Like Napolean, Caesar, Roosevelt, Stalin, Hitler,
Churchill, Lincoln, etc. Men who will make the hard choices, because
they must, instead of waffling about the question.
>Hitler just might very well get everyone making ground cars again.
But was he likely to require that anyone drop back five TLs (to the
horse sans stirrup)? I suspect not.
BTW, most of these worlds were colonized by the Imperium (first, second,
or third). They are not places where the technology was introduced from
outside, aside from a few hundred minor races.
>You're right of course. But my main problem with this is that the grav
>vehicles will be unaffordable to the average person who formerly
>could afford them. Poverty is expensive, and the chaos will not just
>drive down income, but drive up prices.
If grav vehicles are as durable as starships for instance, it would be
1220 before the last of them gave up the ghost, assuming no special
efforts to maintain them longer. Who needs to buy one when the one your
great-grandfather bought still works just fine?
>I disagree very much about the presence of peasants, remembering that
>peasant is a relative term. (even not remembering that: in our own
>world, the most populous nation i think could still be described as
>having a great number of "peasants".) But peasant is relative to the
>level of the middle class. Sure you and I have computers, nice cars,
>central heating, etc, but there are people in america with only radios,
>or outhouses, or have no electricity. They weren't that "common"
>anyway only appearing on a 2 in 36 chance if not mistaken.
Three in thirty-six, actually. 8.3%. So Trin has 830,000,000
"peasants"? What a novel idea? BTW, do you know anyone YOU would call
a "peasant"? I don't. And I do know people who acquired electricity
and running water within my memory. Farmer, welfare client, urban poor,
etc. Not peasant.
My dictionary defines "peasant" as : A member of the class comprising
small farmers and tenants, sharecroppers, and laborers on the land where
these constitute the main labor force in agriculture.
I doubt there are 20,000,000 people in the USA who meet that definition.
Definition 2 : An uncouth, crude, or ill-bred person; boor.
Hmmmm...
Perhaps I should rethink my objections to the peasant encounter:-)
Later...
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I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
--W. von Braun