Rob Dean:
>Right. Now, it looks like spec trade can make money, so the big
>companies have all the good spec trade routes tied up. In game terms
>we can use this to generate adventures, since finding a good load can
>take quite a bit of work. (Left as an exercise for the reader (-: ).
Yes... Quite.:)
>> Then why are they mostly brand new? At least you pay new prices for
>> them.
>Well, a slight quibble: Many are multiples of 10 years old. It's not
>that uncommom to be able to roll 'trader' more than once while
>mustering out.
You get 7-10+ roles on the mustering out table if you qualify for a
merchant ship (4-7+ terms, rank 5+). According to my statistics course,
the chance of getting a ship under the existing conditions is in the
neighborhood of 72% (4 terms) to 84% (7 terms) to 91% (10 terms, good
luck!). Getting that ship to be ten (or more) years old requires two
(or more) rolls of "trader", which is about 48% (4 terms) to a lot better
(with more terms). I concede that a large fraction are not "brand new".
They are, however, bought "brand new" (or possibly you get it by taking
over the payments from the original owner). But SOMEONE, somewhere bought
it new.
Last time I looked at economics in the real world (MANY years), to
break even, you have to make enough to cover overhead (payments, crew
salaries, etc.) plus enough to match the earnings of your initial
investment (the down payment) if you had left your initial investment
where it was (in a bank at 3%). So a free trader owner needs to gross
about 230,000 per month, just to break even. You'll bring in about
100,000 per month on passengers, so you'd better clear an average of
760 per ton on cargo space. SO running less than full up every single
jump can get awfully iffy real fast. Of course, three tons of radioactives
can bring you enough to make payments for the next four or five years all
by itself.
>> The payments are too large to achieve breakeven. And I always assume
>> that these guys want to be merchants to make money, not to lose it.
>
>Hmmmm....I don't recall this conclusion from before. I do recall lots of
>backup for the notion that wilderness refueling is an emergency only
>measure, and that passenger accommodations are a losing proposition
>compared to cargo space.
A slight exageration. A free trader (or other J1-M1 merchant) can come out
ahead, especially if you use spec trade almost exclusively. Of course, if
you make spec trade hard (by making the PCs WORK at finding a cargo), then
you make breakeven harder too.
>> Or dropping MCr6 of the
>> down payment into a bank at 3%, and buying a Travellers' Aid Society
>> membership with the other MCr1 is a good way to achieve independence.
>
>your estimate of consumer interest rates on savings.
Notice, by the way, that at savings interests rates like that, TAS
membership (which pays 4.8%) is an INCREDIBLY good investment for
your first MCr1.
Later...
BTW, welcome back from your long winter's nap.
- -- Via DLG Pro v0.991
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I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
--W. von Braun