George W. Herbert replies:
>Hans and I are basically arguing over what happens as the Civil War
>tapers off into the Hard Times and the new night.
It seems more to me that we're arguing about wether the civil war has
tapered off by 1128 or not. I don't have my 'Hard Times' with me, so
I may be misremembering. If so, I apologize. I'll check when I get
home and let you know.
>From what I remember, 'Hard Times' says something like this: Things
kept getting worse. Now the war has ground down, the big guys have
only enough left to protect their Safes. Here's a way to figure out
what happened to the rest of the worlds up until 1128. [Roll lots
of dice; consult lots of tables]. Some planets end up looking like
this: [Population 5 billion, Starport B, Tech D]. These worlds try
to make it on their own, but they can only stave off the inevitable.
In ten more years they will all have fallen apart. One reason is the
terrible menace of pirate bands with 6, 8, TEN ships!! Wow, the PCs
are all that stand between Indro the Lightless and the defenseless
planet. Can they save it? The suspense is killing! (:-P )
Most of my arguments are based on the premise that the war is over.
If it isn't you have an answer to the most pressing problem: Who is
it who keeps bombing these planets? Still, although I admit that in
that case you have a stronger position, I have a few arguments about
that too. Namely, why bother? Oh, sure, the planets directly on the
path between Lucan and Dulinor might get the bi-annual planetbuster
treatment, but why should Lucan or Dulinor waste badly needed ships
and missiles on worlds that are way off where the other side don't
have any strategic reason to come either? Lucan was forced to stop
his assaults on one rival when he got a mad on against another. He
dosen't have infinite ressources. Nor does anyone else. If GDW had
portrayed these pirates as renegade fleet squadrons things would have
been different. The planetary defense force that can stave off a
Trillion Credit Squadron might be worth stealing (except that anyone
who wanted to steal it would have to use 5 or 6 badly needed TCS's to
do so, but let that lie), but who would bother to steal 700 fighters,
25 small jump shuttles and 10 converted 600 T merchants?
>My opinion is that
>due to continuing action by the main combatants in the wars (Lucan
>vs. Dulinor for the most part) the planets won't have an opportunity
>to get their feet underneath them.
This will only affect worlds that are between Lucan and Dulinor's Safes.
Other factions are behaving considerably saner.
>Given that from all appearances
>most of the factions were still fighting (with what they had available)
>as late as the end of Hard Times's timeline, and that they have large
>safe areas to provide continuing materiel for the wars, I doubt that
>worlds in war zones will ever really be able to get back on their feet.
Oh, there are ways. See later.
> The central argument isn't over wether GDW is right or wrong.
>I agree that they're being silly expecting us to believe that 5 billion
>people can't pay 1Cr each for a couple of starships for local defense.
>What I do believe is that it's likely that the situation of devastated
>war zones following the civil war is likely, that it will result in
>massive disruption and loss of space capability, and that recovery
>will not start until the wars are more over than they are now.
Depends on how over they are. That's apparently the essential
disagreement between us.
>Tens of subsectors of "black war" areas are not going to recover on
>their own; you can't rebuild high tech civilization locally if it's
>been obliterated. I don't think that recovery will be all that fast
>in the other damaged areas, either. And it hasn't started yet.
But that's just my point. GDW tells us how bad it is and tells us that
that's so bad that these planets can't recover on their own. I say they
can if they're left alone by the Big Guys. The Big Guys can clobber them
down to the stone age if they want to, no argument there. But that's not
what GDW says happens.
>>>with one BatRon, two CruRons, and a hundred or so miscelanous
>>>smaller vessels and escorts.
>>
>>Hold it! Where are my system defense forces? I insist on my system
>>defence forces. Lots and lots of system defense forces. Remember my
>>example? The first thing you do is build non-jumpships enough to
>>defend against whatever number of jumpships your opponent have. Not
>>forgetting planetbound or orbital meson gun batteries. Cost a less
>>than even a battlerider, much less a battleship, so you can have a
>>lot more of them defending than your opponent can have ships to attack
>>you with. If he builds nothing but jumpships you can build a more than
>>adequate defense fleet and still have a little left over for a small
>>raiding force. If he also builds some defense forces you can have more
>>jumpships. What you'll most likely have is both sides having a balanced
>>force. Since we stipulated that they are evenly matched, neither side can
>>hope to defeat the opponent. They can destroy his colonies, but why? All
>>you achieve is getting your own colonies destroyed in retaliation.
>
>Ok, you've built system defense forces. Congratulations; Lucan's commander
>on site says "Hey, Neat, A bunch of SDB's I can Use!" and they're his now.
>Don't think it will happen? It's alluded to several times in Hard Times
>and various Challenge articles. Great way to keep the local system
>defense forces down.
A planet is a big place. Hide those SDB's when any fleet comes through. Or
are you saying that Lucan, Dulinor et alii have enough strength to supervise
the building programs of all planets in the Outlands and the Wilds? I think
not.
Anyway, I'd much rather build meson gun batteries. Who is going to have
irreplacable starships shot to pieces in order to steal meson guns that
they don't have the ships to mount on, and that will propably get destroyed
before you can steal them? The English Navy was hard pressed, but when they
attacked shore batteries it was to destroy the guns there, not steal them.
>>>This is a common problem; you're caught between conflicting goals of
>>>concentration of force for offensive goals and protecting worlds,
>>>which requires a spread out force. It gets even worse when you play
>>>this on a larger scale; if the bad guys get past the strategic front
>>>lines, then they're in a whole subsector you were treating as safe,
>>>and they have weeks of time to go raid before you can move strategic
>>>reserves around.
>>
>>Sure, once you begin having opposing polities with more than one high-
>>population planet in each, once one side can muster enough offensive
>>power to overwhelm the defenses of opposing high-population worlds,
>>you get problems. They are more likely to result in one side defeating
>>the other than in both sides destroying each other. The chance that
>>_all_ high-population planets on _both_ sides getting scragged is
>>not big.
>
>Over ten years, with safe home areas and a large central disputed
>region, I can only see the disputed areas being more or less destroyed.
Once again, that's not what GDW says happens.
>>Yes. Much like naval conflicts during the Napoleonic Wars. The problems
>>involved were well-nigh identical. Loose contact with an enemy force
>>and you could spend disproportionate forces trying to intercept them.
>>You should try and read a few books about it and see how they coped.
>
>I have. The analogy is really quite poor; the sea is a continum, whereas
>deep space with jump capable starships is discrete.
Perhaps you can recommend me a few books, then. The ones I've read says
that although interceptions at sea did happen, in far the most cases it
was in places where the geography forced ships to use comparatively
narrow sea lanes. Mostly ships were intercepted near the start or near
the end of their trip. Thus the analogy is reasonably close.
>Worse, it's difficult to sail past an enemy and miss him,
Well, if you as a historian will tell me that the annals of the various
Napoleonic Naval services is not chock full of ship trying to intercept
other ships and failing, and that most interceptions took place in open
sea...
>but easy to jump
>past him as he's going to where you came from... If I want to
>push past an enemy force, it's trivially easy.
No argument there. My argument was that you wouldn't have a force large
enough to damage his mainworld.
>[telling a naval architect and historian to go read about the
>Napoleonic Wars at sea indeed 8-P 8-) ]
Sorry, I did not get the impression from your posting that you were a
naval historian. I know better now.
Even so, let me suggest that you consider wether the difference between
sea (with communications limited to line-of-sight) is really _that_
different from Traveller space.
>> If the two sides are evenly matched then the chances are
>>that each of the main worlds on both sides will have defenses strong
>>enough to withstand the otther side's attack force.
>
>That's great, if that world survives the onset of Hard Times, which
>it looks like few really have.
Which it looks like quite a lot have. There's three or four in the three
sub-sectors that GDW have published so far.
>If it's left trashed and defenseless
>when the war grinds down, it'd better get its feet under itself FAST.
I make it 12 weeks. That fast enough for you? And you're still assuming
that they get ground down to zero, nada, zilch; that they didn't manage to
hide a few ships here and there, that they've been sitting on their thumbs
for the last 5 years, and that no masterless squadrons will turn up and
apply for work (with the personnel policy that Lucan uses I'd expect
quite a lot of admirals will move elsewhere rather than report back that
they failed to carry out their orders :-).
>And from the look of Hard Times, the war isn't really quite over in
>the real areas of conflict.
Have we got different versions of 'Hard Times'?
> If by 'bad guys' you mean pirates then I
>>1) have enough strength to defend against them at all my colonies, and
>>2) only have to stave them off for a year or two until their ships
>>break down.
>
>They only have to find one hi-tech world that can and will maintain
>them to threaten a quarter of a sector effectively. Buying pirates
>off by supporting them might look very good for some worlds as things
>go to hell...
Groan! That's what I've been saying. Now that high-population planet at
least has a defense force (they also have the ressources to support
those pirates in luxury, so why are the fool pirates going off raiding
instead of staying and defending their meal ticket?) No, it makes no
sense. Any pirate group strong enough to defeat the defenses of a high-
population planet will either be supported already (and thus have no
interest in attacking it) or will take over that planet (and thus
become their defenders).
>>You're mixing up war with an equal enemy and defense against piracy.
>>Pirates may survive, they may even prosper under some circumstances
>>(I think they would do quite well during the Hard Times), but they
>>will never become a serious threat to the economic welfare of a high-
>>population world, much less (as GDW insists) be the cause of their
>>destruction. The whole concept is a contradiction in terms.
>
>But that's what's happening; as the wars continue to sweep back and
>forth across the frontier and outland regions, planets are alternatively
>exposed to piracy and what's left of main-fleet actions. Little
>planets fold up and die under this; big ones get very badly stomped.
>Every time you think you're getting ahead, Dulinor makes another
>thrust into the region and your defense forces either get
>blown to bits by his fleet or they get drafted by Lucan to help
>stave off this latest assault...
No they don't. They hide their forces from big fleets and whale
the tar out of any pirates that come along. A planet is big. A
star system is really big. How many ships do you imagine Lucan
or Dulinor can afford to send on these recruiting missions? How
long can they stay and search?
>>And then, say that the pirates can destroy a polity. Answer me this:
>>Who's maintaining the pirates' ships? Who's going to destroy their base
>>if they're so powerful? And wouldn't their base then become a center of
>>recovery? I have no quarrel with then concept of a lot of dirty deeds
>>and carnage during the Hard Times, but the concept that the whole
>>Imperium will kilkenny itself is ludicrous.
>
>Ok, we get some centers of recovery. _After_ the wars grind down.
>That hasn't happened yet, and doesn't look like it will happen soon.
I guess we do have different editions...
Hans Rancke
University of Copenhagen
[email removed]
- ------------
"And now to conclude and to finish my song.
Let us hope that these hard times, they will not last long.
I hope soon to have occasion to alter my song;
and sing: All the good times of the Empire.
In the Empire are jolly good times."