Lethality in Roleplaying Small Arms Systems
By Frank A Chadwick
I know of few issues in roleplaying systems that cause as
much passionate argument as do small arms fire, both hit
probability and damage. Over the years I have heard repeated
complaints about the "low lethality" of what was originally
the Twilight: 2000 combat system, and which is now GDW's
core roleplaying system. I don't know how many times I've
heard actually _angry_ gamers tell me that they can hit a
man-size target 100% of the time at X range, and our rules
are BS because they have less than a 50% chance, or even
worse. Or that this wound or that wound might or might not
knock someone down in the game, but in "real life" would
invariably prove fatal.
It's always been my feeling that these arguments produce a
great deal more heat than light, and are usually based on
personal prejudice and repeated viewings of Hollywood war
movies, rather than a serious examination of facts. So in
the spirit of casting real light on the subject, I'd like to
present a series of actual close range combat shootings, all
drawn from the experiences of the San Diego Police
Department's experimental Border Crime Task Force during the
eighteen months of its existence.
A rugged area of undeveloped canyons and gullies along the
US-Mexican border between San Diego and Tijuana was the site
of numerous nocturnal border crosing by illegal aliens. That
was the responsibility of the US Imigration Service. But the
people coming north illegally were being systematically
brutalized by gangs of crooks - robbery, assault, and rape
were commonplace, and as the violence escallated murder
would be as well. That was the responsibility of the San
Diego Police Department, since this area of rugged ravines,
even though a barren wilderness, was inside the city limits.
The Task Force members, fewer than a dozen undercover
policemen disguised as illegal immigrants, went into the
canyons at night and waited to be attacked. When it
happened, they made arrests, or tried to. Given the
environment, it was only a matter of time before deadly
force was used by both sides in what became a running
guerrilla war.
The following represents most of the actual exchanges of
gunfire that took place during the unit's existence. I will
present as much information as I know, and make a few
observations at the end, but leave gamers to draw their own
conclusions as to hit probabilities and weapon lethality.
1. February 1, 1976
Sergeant Lopez (the Task Force supervisor) and Officer
Castillo encountered two suspects near the Mexican border
deep in the canyons. One was a well-dressed man armed with a
.45-caliber automatic, the other dressed in rags and apparently
unarmed. At close range (a few yards) the gunman covered
the two officers with his automatic, first pointing it at
Sergeant Lopez. Both officers squated on the ground and
continued their pretense that they were illegal immigrants.
When the gunman shifted the pistol to his left hand and
turned it on Officer Chacon, Sergeant Lopez quickly reached
into his clothing, drew the .38 special snub nosed revolver
from his shoulder holster, and fired all five rounds at the
gunman in rapid succession. (The weapon was apparently a
Smith & Wesson Model 36 Chief's Special, which holds only
five rounds in the cylinder.) Several rounds hit the gunman
and jerked him around. As he twisted to the side, Officer
Castillo drew his own pistol and shot the gunman once as he
fell to the ground.
The second suspect began to flee, Officer Castillo fired
again, and that suspect also fell to the ground. Castillo
ran to the prone suspect and, overcome by an adrenaline
reaction, lost control and began beating him.
The gunman, it turned out, was Officer Luis Tamez of the
Mexican Immigration service and the ragged suspect was
reported to be his informant. The exact reason why Officer
Tamez was on the US side of the border and what his
intentions were remained a source of controversy.
Of the six shots fired at point blank range at Tamez (five
by Lopez and one by Castillo), five hit. Two bullets struck
him in the groin, one hit him in the right chest directly
over the nipple, one hit his arm, and one hit his buttock as
he spun around and fell to the ground. Of all of these, the
chest wound was the most visible, as Tamez's shirt
immediately became soaked with blood, but it did the least
damage, as the .38 Special bullet bounced off Tamez's
ribcage and did only superficial damage. The two groin hits
were the the most dangerous, and all of the participants
were convinced that Tamez was dying. Since cross-winds were
too strong to allow a helicopter to land in the canyons, the
two officers tried to manhandle Tamez up the steep wall, but
Tamez found it so painful to be dragged over the rocks that
he demanded to be laid down and then got up, pushed the
officers away, and climbed out of the canyon under his own
power.
Both of the wounded men recovered completely.
2. March 23, 1976
Officers Chacon, Vasquez, Salgado, Castillo, and Gil were
together in Deadman's Canyon sitting on the banks of a
shallow dry streambed when they were approached by two
suspects. Officer Chacon was on one side of the ditch and
the others were on the opposite side, their legs dangling
over the edge. The suspects approached from Chacon's side.
One suspect, later identified as Morales, was armed with a
pistol and other, identified as Madrid, was armed with a
long-bladed knife.
All of the police officers were armed; most of them had
two revolvers. Castillo had three revolvers and a shotgun.
Several of them also wore bullet-proof vests. Of the five
officers, two were combat veterans - both Salgado and Gil
were Marine NCO's with extensive combat experience in
Vietnam and both were former drill instructors. Gil had
also been all-Marine Judo Champion.
Morales covered the officers with his pistol and ordered
them to put their hands up. Madrid jumped to the other side
of the streambed to search them for valuables, still
believing them to be illegal immigrants. All of the officers
and suspects were now thoroughly mingled and all were
probably within three or four meters of each other.
Officer Castillo, armed with a short pump shotgun under
his coat, was probably the first to fire. He pointed the
shotgun at Morales and fired, hitting him in the gun hand
and blowing most of the fingers off, disarming him in the
process. All of the other officers except for Gil drew their
revolvers and began firing. Chacon and Vasquez both emptied
their revolvers in rapid sucession. Gil (the former judo
champ) dove at Morales just as he was hit by the shotgun
blast, and Morales, riddled with bullets, fell on top of Gil
in the bottom of the ditch.
The second suspect ran into the night pursued by Chacon
and Vasquez, still firing. After a brief chase the second
suspect fell wounded.
The first bandit lay on top of Gill, apparently dead. In
addition to the shattered hand from Castillo's shotgun, he
had received seven other bullet wounds at point blank range:
one each to the right shoulder, left lower chest, left side
of the back, upper spine, left elbow, and two over the right
clavicle. Amazingly, he was still live.
The second bandit was shot three times, once in each leg
by pistol shots and once straight through the neck, from one
side to the other, by a stray buckshot pellet.
Two of the officers were wounded. Castillo, shortly after
firing his shotgun, had reached out to grab the wounded
suspect and had been shot straight through the wrist, and
was almost immediately incapacitated by pain. Gill, as he
dove for Morales, was shot in the hip. Both officers were
inadvertently shot by officer Chacon, firing across the
ditch from the other side.
All four injured men survived and recovered.
3. July 9, 1976
Sergeant Lopez and officers Cervantes, Puente, and Camacho
(in that order from south to north) were concealed in a
drainage pipe at the south end of the E-2 canyon, less than
a dozen meters north of the international border. Officer
Chacon was concealed outside of the pipe to observe the
approach of any suspects. All were armed with revolvers and
Officer Camacho had a pump-action shotgun as well.
About an hour after dusk a suspect in a ski mask
approached the south end of the pipe. The suspect, in a
remarkable display of strength, seized Sergeant Lopez by the
arm, pulled him bodily from the pipe, and dragged him down a
slope into a ravine where there were three other suspects.
At the bottom of the ravine Sergeant Lopez was surrounded
by four suspects, all apparently armed and covering him. The
suspect to his left held a rifle (although this later turned
out to be a dummy). The suspect in front of him and another
to his right covered him with pistols. The leader of the
group, the man in the ski mask, (and later identified as
"Lobo") held Lopez's shooting arm in a vice-like grip and
held a knife in his free hand. While Lobo still held his
shooting arm, Lopez managed to get his hand to his wasteband
and draw his 5-shot Model-36 and quickly emptied it in a
semicircle around him: one shot to the man holding the
rifle, then one at the man in front of him, then one into
Lobo, holding his arm, then the last two bullets at the man
to his right. At this point the suspects scattered and began
to flee, except for Lobo, struggling with Lopez.
Officer Cervantes scrambled out of the south end of the
pipe and fired one round at the fleeing suspects with his
revolver while Officer Camacho crawled out of the north end
of the pipe and fired twice with his shotgun, dropping one
of the fleeing suspects (who later rose and continued to
flee). Camacho then dropped his shotgun, drew his pistol,
and fired five more shots at the fleeing suspects. Officer
Cervantes pursued a suspect for several meters into Mexico,
fired one more shot at him, and then returned. As he
returned, one of the suspects fired first four pistol shots
at the officers from out of the darkness and later fired a
fifth. Officer Chacon shortly afterwards heard four other
shots fired at them from a different direction.
The officers fired a total of two shotgun shells and about
a dozen pistol shots. Of these, apparently one shotgun shell
and two pistol shots scored hits. Lopez's point-blank shot
at the bandit leader had broken his thigh and lodged in his
hip, incapacitating him. None of the other suspects were
captured, although two were later seen wounded. (One was
admited to a Mexican hospital with his leg badly lacerated
by buckshot. He was arrested by Mexican police. The other
burst into a party, his chest soaked with blood, then fled
again. He was never apprehended, nor was the fourth
suspect.)
Of the nine rounds fired at the police, none hit.
4. July 19, 1976
Officers Salgado, Camacho, and Chacon were acting as
decoys near the border when they were spotted by two
officers of the Tijuana Municipal Police, officers Hernandez
and Espindola, who considered their actions suspicious and
investigated with revolvers drawn, using their flashlights.
A second Task Force team, consisting of Sergeant Lopez and
officers Puente,
Vasquez, and Castillo, were nearby under cover and were soon
also seen by Officer Hernandez, who considered their actions
atypical of illegal border crossers and suspected that they
were criminals. The two task force teams joined up by a
gully as Hernandez climbed down to confront them. At his
point Sergeant Lopez, believing the two Tijuana poliemen
were trying to extort money from border crossers, jumped
down from his side of the ravine to face Hernandez, held up
his badge in his left hand and his revolver in his right,
and yelled "Policia! Policia!"All of the Task Force members
drew and pointed their guns as Officer Espindola screamed
the unneccessary warning to Hernandez,"He's got a gun!"
Hernandez, instead of firing, raised his pistol and struck
Lopez in the chest with the barrel, knocking him down. Later
everyone would have a different impression of who fired
first. Hernandez got off five rounds before collapsing under
a hail of San Diego Police fire, and his partner Espindolo
emptied his pistol (aparently a ten-round automatic) as he
scrambled back toward their squad car. The Task Force
members all fired, and fired a total of one shotgun round
and thirty-three pistol rounds. These broke down as follows:
Fired At Hernandez: 14 pistol shots from Puente,
Castillo, Camacho, Chacon, and Lopez.
Fired At Espindolo: 19 pistol shots from Salgado,
Castillo (his second pistol), Vasquez, Camacho, and Chacon
(his second pistol).
Fired At Both: One shotgun shell fromVasquez in the
general direction of both officers (after which the shotgun
jammed and Vasquez drew his pistol).
Three officers were wounded in the incident.
Espindolo was hit four times: once in the leg and then
three more times in the back as he crawled back toward his
squad car. He reached his squad car and drove away for help.
Taken to a hopital, he recovered from his wounds and later
returned to duty.
Hernandez, the closer of the two, was hit twice, and
ballistics tests showed that both bullets were fired by
Officer Chacon. Amazingly, Lopez, lying at Hernandez' feet,
had missed with all three shots he fired. One of Chacon's
bullets hit Hernandez in the abdomen and the other hit him
in the arm. He attempted to crawl back across the border but
was seized by the Task Force officers and arrested. He later
recovered from his wounds and returned to duty.
Chacon was hit once in the upper arm, recovered fully, and
returned to duty.
5. January 25, 1977
Sergent Lopez, officers Puente, Castillo, Chacon, and
Vasquez encountered a group of three suspects who pretended
to be undercover police and tried to extort money from them.
When Puente moved to cut of the retreat of the bandits south,
a suspect jumped on him with a long knife and began struggling.
Officer Vasquez jumped on the back of the suspect and, fearing
that he was about to stab Puente, put his snub-nosed .38
caliber Special against the back of the suspect's head and
fired once. The pistol shot instantly killed the assailant
and temporarily blinded Vasquez. Puente had not even seen
the knife.
At the same time one of the suspects lunged at Sergeant
Lopez with a knife. Lopez fired once at the suspect at
point-blank range, and then fired again as the suspect
dashed by him. Lopez then emptied his pisol at the fleeing
suspect and when that had no effect began to pursue him on
foot. Eventually he overtook the suspect and overpowered
him. After the struggle the suspect noticed, for the first
time, that he had been wounded once in the elbow.
The third suspect was facing Officer Chacon, who this
night was armed with a shotgun. Chacon raised the shotgun
and, at a range nearly close enough to touch the suspect
with his hand, discharged the shotgun once directly into the
center of the suspect's chest. The suspect stood for a
moment looking at him, then turned around and walked calmly
away into the darkness. Unsure whether he had somehow missed
the target or the suspect was wearing some form of body
armor, Chacon followed him cautiously and soon found him
lying peacefully on the ground, dead of massive chest
injuries. (San Diego Police Lieutenant Richard Snider would
later describe the wound as, "...a hole in his chest you
could throw a cat through.")
Observations
In the five incidents presented above, Task Force officers
fired about ninety rounds, most of them at close range, and
scored 29 hits, or 32%. Of even more interest are the eight
shots fired while effectively in physical contact with the
target (one shot by Lopez at the leader "Lobo" in incident
three, 3 shots by Lopez at Hernandez in incident four, and
in incident five 2 of Lopez's 5 shots at his suspect,
Chacon's 1 shot and Vasquez's 1 shot). Of these eight shots,
only four were hits, or 50%. Finally, it is intersting how
many of the casualties were achieved by one man, Chacon.
Although he apparently did not fire or score hits in
incident three and was not present for incident one, he hit
with his only shot in the fifth incident, was the only
officer to hit Hernandez in the fourth incident, and
actually scored at least one, and perhaps more, hits on
every man (including the two friendly officers) wounded in
the second incident.
As to bullet lethality, a total of fifteen officers and
suspects were wounded in these five incidents, and they were
hit by a total of 32 bullets. Most of the injured men were
struck by a single bullet; four were struck by muliple
bullets, and of these one was struck by eight bullets. Of
these fifteen casualties, 2 were killed almost instantly
while the other thirteen survived and recovered. All of
those who suffered multiple gunshot wounds recovered. That
is, none of the fatalities were caused by a cumulative
build-up of trauma, but rather were due to a single,
almost instantly fatal, wound.
There are not enough cases here to provide the statistical
basis for a complete small arms combat system, but there is
plenty of food for thought. The breakdown of the hits by
body area is shown on the following chart. The first column
shows the body area. The second shows the number of hits to
that area. The third shows the proportion of the total hits
sufered by that body area. The fourth shows the number of
fatal wounds to that body area. The last column shows the
proportion of wounds to that area which were fatal.
Area Total Hits Of All Fatal Fatal
Head & Neck: 2.06 1 .5
Chest: 11* .34 1 .09
Abdomen: 4 * .13 0 .0
Limbs: 15 .47 0 .0
All Combined 32 1 2 .06
* The chest and abdomen totals assume that of the three
shots taken by Officer Espindolo in the back, 2 were in the
chest and 1 in the abdomen.
Reference:
Wambaugh, Joseph, Lines & Shadows. 1984. ISBN 0-688-02619-
2