Subject: Time:8:30 AM
OFFICE MEMO Bank loan refused, re<Space Colonies Date:4/28/94
[email removed] (John Bucsek) described his TL-8 O'Neil Colony Two as:
>"Price: 468,614,466 MCr...The colony is basically a cylinder 32km long and
>6km in diameter....I don't know how to calculate a reasonable population
>density but I believe that even 4 million is not unreasonable."
Given the price the MONTHLY mortgage payment would be ~1.43 MCr PER PERSON
(assuming a pop of 4 million) given a 5% interest rate and 100 year loan.
Also, this doesn't include the initial cost of putting 4 million people in
orbit--no small sum for a T-8 society (no grav). IMHO, there is no way that
any government or private corporation would back this venture.
But you say, "The cost is spread over the population of a whole world." If you
assume that the world has a unified government and a population of 1 billion
the MONTHLY mortgage payment would be 5,739 Cr, or 68,875 Cr/year. IMHO, there
is no way that any government or private corporation would back this venture.
Finally, I have heard a formula quoted from "High Guard" saying that a world's
ability to build spaceships is one ton per 1,000 population. I may be wrong
here because I don't own a copy. The Hull Material mass is 1,468,574,005
tons which would indicate that construction time for the 1 billion pop. world
above would be 14,686 years.
I respect John's opinions and efforts, but the math doesn't work. Maybe that's
why Earth doesn't have one now. This is especially true in the T:TNE era when
you know grav technology is "just down the pike" and there are vampire ships
out there that would drool to do a high delta gee ram! BTW, the planet
couldn't afford the fleet to protect it either.
At least in the T:TNE era, I assume that rational paranoia, if nothing else,
would limit the size and number of orbital habitats, starports, etc. Also,
there would be MUCH less incentive to built high population cities.
Any, thoughts, comments, flames?
Kevin Mc Carthy
[email removed]