Re: Fall of Tobia

I'm willing to withdraw my earlier comments about Tobia as needing more
thought.  Like Cynthia and Steve, I was trying to find some combination
of incompetence and force that could possibly make this situation work.
One problem not mentioned is that "sneak attack" strategies can't be
used by the Aslan, so that route is out.  They have to satisfy the
requirements of honor by declaring hostilities in some manner, which is
a big problem for the direct attack school of thought.  Frontal assaults
are really dumb.  Perhaps someone could come up with a *better* scenario
that leads to the same end results, Tobia and Albe under Aslan control,
military or not in nature?

Mark "Not this $%%#@ thread again" Clark [email removed] wrote:
>I know! I Know!  The Aslan used a really big rock!  It was going really
>fast!  It had big sharp pointy teeth!

Hmmmmmm...naaaaaah.  :)

Hans Rancke-Madsen [email removed] wrote:
[analysis of population needed to support attack]

I probably can't match the 1.6 trillion Aslan you require to support the
ihatei battle fleets so that there's enough to have a chance at capturing
Tobia.  To support all the ihatei in the trans-Rift colonies, I can,
since they're coming from the main body of the Hierate, too.  But I can't
justify throwing *all* of them at Tobia; not even half, what with the
problem posed by Albe.

[email removed] wrote:
>    Your analysis of required Ihatei numbers to take on Tobia I agree with
>mostly, but I think that any commander who attacks with less than three to
>one superiority in measured strength is a fool.  He should have five to
>one before he even seriously considers the problem, IMHO.

Agreed also.  Even with the tremendous Aslan lift capability, I find it very
difficult to get enough Aslan force to the systems to make a difference.
Especially against Imperial-quality troops.

>    Where are you and Hans getting that population for Tobia?  The only
>info I have on it sets it at 6 gigapeople, not 20 gigapeople...

DGP-Trav Digest.  Incidentally, except for info verifiable with the old
"Atlas of the Imperium" the UWPs from the dgp-original folder from
ftp.engrg.uwo.ca for Trojan Reach are messed up -- someone rerolled data
for the subsectors printed in Leviathan, for instance.  The file's still
useful to show things like pre-war world allegiance, though.

>    You are using the civilian definition of "threat" here.

Sort of.  What I was trying to say that while the naval staff may have
been perfectly aware of the risk presented by a heavily armed Aslan
force near the border, the civilian government headed by the Duke, a
non-military man, might not immediately understand what the navy was
telling them about their trading partners.  Of course, the government
should understand what you mean by the "military definition" of threat,
but I was trying to find a way for the scenario to work.

>    Keep in mind, though, that TL15 "armies" have considerable "organic"
>spacegoing capability.  After all, a TL15 grav-tank is different from
>a fighter primarily in the way its crew are addressed ("driver", "gunner",
>as opposed to "pilot", "gunner")...

True.  And this is certainly one of the places where using 5FW falls down
hard.  But if this is all correct, then what about:

>    Note, btw, that the Zhodani Consulate was incapable of capturing TL12
>Jewell in spite of limited Naval assistance in the defense of Jewell, and
>a three year siege.

Which leads to another question.  What were the Zhodani planning to gain
by sending that tech-14 40th Fleet of theirs on an attack on the tech-15
defenses at Rhylanor?  If they can't get Jewell, they surely can't take
Rhylanor.  They certainly don't have three years to besiege it; not even
three weeks.  Is it supposed to be a suicidal strike raid of some sort?

First, Rhylanor is the only big tech-15 shipyard in the coreward half of the
Marches.  Is the Imperium going to leave this system undefended?  I think
not.  If they need to, they can pull forward the Sabine subsector regulars
to help out.  Second, if the Imperium is going to have jump-6 pickets in
the Reach, they will in a declared war zone.  When the Zhodani enter the
Ghandi/Lanth system, Regina finds out a week later, and Rhylanor the week
after that.  A jump-4 Zhodani fleet needs at least three weeks to get to
Rhylanor or Porozlo.  Third, the trouble with Fulacin as a forward base
is that if the Imperials catch on, there's *no* gas giants in the system
to refuel at!  So they'd either have to go attack Porozlo, or go back to
Tureded, which at least has gas giants, to refuel.  So the idea that the
Zhodani can possibly surprise the Imperials is shaky, and the subsector
navy and Rhylanor's defenses should be warned.  Finally, Rhylanor has
all the defensive advantages of a tech-level on the invaders, a HiPop
shipyard and naval base, and probably reinforcements from the tech-15
shipyards of Deneb that are in the rear area.  Oh, and the fact that it's
very likely that between the fleets in Regina, Vilis, and Lanth subsectors,
they can cut off the Zhodani retreat.  Even raiding Rhylanor seems to be
a really risky idea.

Any opinions?

  Steve Bonneville
  [email removed]