Subject: TNE:What Does the Future Hold?
Path of Tears (an excellent RC sourcebook, in my opinion) gives
us a look at some of the psychology that drives the Reformation
Coalition, and a glimpse of the kind of interstellar state that
they (and presumably the Hivers) want. The information that we
have on the Regency, though scantier, implies that the Regency
will be fundamentally based on the old Third Imperium model, with
some modifications. I see a conflict of fundamental ideas
coming.
The 3I (Third Imperium) model was one in which planets were
allowed to have whatever kind of government and social system
they desired, subject to only loose constraints (no slavery, no
nukes, honor extrality...). Additionally, Imperial interference
in internal matters (revolutions, coups, etc.) was (at least
theoretically) nil. The RC model appears to be strongly
anti-theocracy and anti-despotism, and aiding one side or another
in a local conflict appears not to be \mallum in se\.
What will happen when these two states (the Regency and the RC)
come into contact, as they inevitably will?
One problem that the RC is experiencing, and will probably
continue to experience for a long time to come, is the need for
high technology, without having the technological and industrial
base to meet those needs. They will aid lower tech planets in
"seeding" a technological/industrial base, but it is simply not
possible to force-grow such a base beyond the current sustainable
technology level - a thorough understanding of one level of
technology and a strong industrial base built on that level are
required before it is possible to build into the next technology
level. As planetary populations grow, and centers of learning
and industry develop, the sustainable technology level will rise.
The likely result of this is a RC with a high-tech center, with
the tech level gradually tapering off proportional to distance
from Aubaine. This will lead to a situation much like we see on
Terra today, with over-industrialized nations experiencing
economic problems due to commodity manufacturing being done
"offshore," and in those "offshore" planets, a great deal of
exploitation of resources, including human resources, and a
generally lower (possibly much lower) standard of living.
Incorporation by the RC of active high-tech cultures will only
minimally alleviate this problem, providing small local regions
with higher standards of living. However, these cultures, once
admitted to the RC, will almost certainly have their economies
and manufacturing bases distorted by a need to "feed" the central
areas of the RC. Assuming freedom of travel from one world to
another, we're looking at the ghettoization of space, with all of
its attendant problems (again, look at present-day Terra for
examples of what can happen).
The Regency will also have the same kind of high-tech center,
because the center did not lose the technology in the first
place. However, the Regency will have access to the Jumpstart
caches, which will allow a more even development of the
technological and industrial base - or, the Regency can do
nothing, and allow the reintegrated areas to develop on their
own. In either case, the Regency is likely to have less of a
ghettoization problem, as they have no need to scavenge high
technology, and their expansion is not driven by a need to import
from an external market. High tech centers will develop, but not
in such a way that they will be driven to focus on serving the
needs of an already extant high-tech area.
Does the RC know that the Regency and the other Spinward states
exist? Do the Hivers? Does the Regency know about the survival
of the Hive Federation? About the RC?
At this point in time, we must assume that the answer to all of
these questions is "no" and that both the Regency and the RC will
develop in their own way, until they meet. That meeting is
likely to occur due to both states attempting to integrate or
build forward bases on the same planet. With such a fundamental
difference in outlook, we can expect to see armed conflicts, as
the Regency tries to prevent undue interference in the internal
affairs of a client or member state, while the RC is trying to
mold the state into what they feel is an "appropriate" shape for
membership. Add to this mixture the Guild, which will try to
keep both interstellar states out of the picture, and I think
we're going to see the (N+1)th Interstellar Wars/Pacification
Wars/Wars of Integration/Coalition Wars/Regency Wars/Guild Wars.
Comments?
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Jeff Zeitlin [email removed]
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