TNE:What Does the Future

Subject: TNE:What Does the Future Hold?

  Path of Tears (an excellent RC sourcebook, in my opinion) gives
  us a look at some of the psychology that drives the Reformation
  Coalition, and a glimpse of the kind of interstellar state that
  they (and presumably the Hivers) want.  The information that we
  have on the Regency, though scantier, implies that the Regency
  will be fundamentally based on the old Third Imperium model, with
  some modifications.  I see a conflict of fundamental ideas
  coming.

  The 3I (Third Imperium) model was one in which planets were
  allowed to have whatever kind of government and social system
  they desired, subject to only loose constraints (no slavery, no
  nukes, honor extrality...).  Additionally, Imperial interference
  in internal matters (revolutions, coups, etc.) was (at least
  theoretically) nil.  The RC model appears to be strongly
  anti-theocracy and anti-despotism, and aiding one side or another
  in a local conflict appears not to be \mallum in se\.

  What will happen when these two states (the Regency and the RC)
  come into contact, as they inevitably will?

  One problem that the RC is experiencing, and will probably
  continue to experience for a long time to come, is the need for
  high technology, without having the technological and industrial
  base to meet those needs.  They will aid lower tech planets in
  "seeding" a technological/industrial base, but it is simply not
  possible to force-grow such a base beyond the current sustainable
  technology level - a thorough understanding of one level of
  technology and a strong industrial base built on that level are
  required before it is possible to build into the next technology
  level.  As planetary populations grow, and centers of learning
  and industry develop, the sustainable technology level will rise.
  The likely result of this is a RC with a high-tech center, with
  the tech level gradually tapering off proportional to distance
  from Aubaine.  This will lead to a situation much like we see on
  Terra today, with over-industrialized nations experiencing
  economic problems due to commodity manufacturing being done
  "offshore," and in those "offshore" planets, a great deal of
  exploitation of resources, including human resources, and a
  generally lower (possibly much lower) standard of living.
  Incorporation by the RC of active high-tech cultures will only
  minimally alleviate this problem, providing small local regions
  with higher standards of living.  However, these cultures, once
  admitted to the RC, will almost certainly have their economies
  and manufacturing bases distorted by a need to "feed" the central
  areas of the RC.  Assuming freedom of travel from one world to
  another, we're looking at the ghettoization of space, with all of
  its attendant problems (again, look at present-day Terra for
  examples of what can happen).

  The Regency will also have the same kind of high-tech center,
  because the center did not lose the technology in the first
  place.  However, the Regency will have access to the Jumpstart
  caches, which will allow a more even development of the
  technological and industrial base - or, the Regency can do
  nothing, and allow the reintegrated areas to develop on their
  own.  In either case, the Regency is likely to have less of a
  ghettoization problem, as they have no need to scavenge high
  technology, and their expansion is not driven by a need to import
  from an external market.  High tech centers will develop, but not
  in such a way that they will be driven to focus on serving the
  needs of an already extant high-tech area.

  Does the RC know that the Regency and the other Spinward states
  exist?  Do the Hivers?  Does the Regency know about the survival
  of the Hive Federation?  About the RC?

  At this point in time, we must assume that the answer to all of
  these questions is "no" and that both the Regency and the RC will
  develop in their own way, until they meet.  That meeting is
  likely to occur due to both states attempting to integrate or
  build forward bases on the same planet.  With such a fundamental
  difference in outlook, we can expect to see armed conflicts, as
  the Regency tries to prevent undue interference in the internal
  affairs of a client or member state, while the RC is trying to
  mold the state into what they feel is an "appropriate" shape for
  membership.  Add to this mixture the Guild, which will try to
  keep both interstellar states out of the picture, and I think
  we're going to see the (N+1)th Interstellar Wars/Pacification
  Wars/Wars of Integration/Coalition Wars/Regency Wars/Guild Wars.

  Comments?
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Jeff Zeitlin                                      [email removed]
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