cats, rats, dogs...

After reading the last few issues of the TML all at once, I noticed that
the discussion has finally come around to the unreality of the Aslan and
Vargr "threat" to the Domain.

1) the Vargr.  Face it.  The Vargr aren't a credible threat to anyone.
A Vargr Navy needs bases just like the next guys do.  If operating that
far from your homeport were that easy in MT, then the Fifth Frontier War
would have included a lot of things that never happened (for instance -
Vargr raids in force (about 100,000 tons of warships) down around
Rhylanor, Regina, Glisten, and similar important worlds.  Instead
theyplayed around with a few nowhere places on the fringe, and never
even got to Efate.
Vargr raiders are a "threat" all right.  But to what?  A raider fleet of
100,000 aggregate tons could carry no more than about 20,000 men and
their equipment (tanks, APCs, artillery, food, medicine, etc.).  That
wouldn't even be a major threat to the USA today.  The threat to an
Imperial world with its share of 50-odd squadrons of cruisers and
battleriders would be trivial.
As pirates, the Vargr raiders should be a major threat to small ships in
isolated systems.  Since recent discussion here has indicated that 99%
of the shipping in the Imperium is bulk haulers, which, if armed, could
brush aside the average pirate effortlessly, I doubt the Vargr ability
to do more than annoy the Domain.
Besides, I doubt that the Vargr would be that excited about invading the
Imperium, when they know that old man Oberlindes would send the
"Emmissary" to give them a stern talking to.

2) the Aslan.  Has anyone ever done a detailed analysis of an assault
across the Rift against an enemy operating close to his own bases?  A
TL15 fleet is MUCH better than a TL13 fleet.  A TL16 fleet makes that
TL15 fleet look kind of sick.  The Domain can raise (under TCS
guidelines) somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 trillion credit
squadrons of TL16 warships (almost entirely from Vincennes/Deneb 1122).
That force alone should be worth 1500 squadrons of Ihatei.  The TL 15
squadrons from Glisten, Trin, Rhylanor, and Mora are worth 1000
squadrons.  All in all, the aslan are going to have a very hard time
subjugating any part of the Domain (unless they earn their land by
helping smash the Vargr to Coreward).
Admittedly, the Aslan have enough firepower to be a threat in spite of
the problems.  Assuming they can operate without bases for extended
periods.  There is no indication anywhere in MT that a ship can live
without a base for any period much beyond a year.  With the Aslan
baseworlds 20 parsecs away in the Reaches, they will spend so much time
shuttling back and forth for maintenance and repairs, that they won't
have time to be a real threat.

The real question for the Aslan is why anyone in their right mind would
go that far looking for land when most Aslan systems are NOWHERE NEAR
FILLED UP.  The Aslan systems include about the same fraction of High
Pop worlds as the Imperial sectors do.  So 92% of the Aslan systems have
LARGE amounts of extra space for the taking.  And they are all close by
to home.  Makes you wonder...

3)  The Sword WOrlds.  Now these guys could be a threat.  They can't
fight the Domain by themselves, but as a base of operations for either
Ihatei or Vargr fleets, they can't be beat.  And the Sword World fleets
are NOT trivial.  They have three High Pop worlds of their own, and can
maintain a fleet of 180+ trillion credit squadrons if they want to.  Not
nearly enough to fight the Imperium, but there is no Corridor Fleet to
bail them out this next time.  And they are still the perfect base for
raiders (Vargr, Ihatei, and others).  Right at the sector's jugular,
with enough rift in front of them to make defense a LITTLE easier.  They
could hold out a LOOOONG time.

Later...

- -- Via DLG Pro v0.985b

[email removed]

I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
                                    --W. von Braun