Looking at the figures for probability of misjumps (Starship Operators
Manual) , I was wondering how the many small starships ever got someone
to agree to finance them ?
The problem is this :
Given that a commercial starship will average about 2 jumps per month
over it's 40 year repayment period, it will have made about one thousand
jumps by the time it's paid off.
Assuming it has a skilled engineer and doesn't miss any maintenance,
etc, it will need to roll for a possible misjump only about one jump in
thirty-six (roll 2 '1's on 2d6). This gives about 28 possible mishaps.
A major mishap, which is what is needed for a misjump, will occur about
one time in twelve (roll 11+ on 2d6 ). This works out as around 2.3
actual misjumps per thousand.
Assuming (from a guess at how many hexes have systems in them ) a chance
of something under 50% of emerging from jumpspace close enough to
somewhere to get rescued, etc, you get 1.5 unrecoverable misjumps per 40
years of ship life.
Clearly, the Mega -corporate bulk freighters, and large military ships
will be able to carry small, jump-capable lifeboats, but a 100t scout or
a 200t merchant just won't have the space.
The question is, then, who's going to finance a starship that will, on
average, be lost without trace one and a half times before it's paid
for ?
This all depends on whether you want jumps to allow you to arrive
anywhere, even in deep space, or if you prefer jump drives to only
operate between star -systems, as has been suggested. If this isn't to
be the case, or if it doesn't hold true for misjumps, then there will be
a *lot* of lost starships drifting in deep space, with almost no chance
of even the most long-term, detailed search ever locating any of them -
Great idea for adventurers finding a 200-year old lost freighter, etc,
but really bad for interstellar free traders.
I never really liked the idea of 40 -year loans anyway. As the rules
stand, you can either go bankrupt carrying other peoples goods, or make
vast sums on a few profitable routes, with little middle ground.
Changing to a d-20 in new Traveller, or whatever, is going to totally
mess up any kind of probabilitys, as you'll have as much chance of a 1
as a 20. If they don't fix the rest of the rules on trade, starship
operations, and anything else that's long -term, it won't be worth
travelling by car, let alone starship !
Next - Jump torpedo's :It seems they're indispensable, so how about...
And - Why you don't need maneuver drives to move or be agile !
plus - Robot Drop-Tanks ?
Must get a new .sig file Simon Anderson
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