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To: [email removed]
Subject: Economics in Hard Times
Steve Higgenbotham offers a dissenting view of the "Hard Times" scenario
presented by GDW. The following is my rebuttal, with my assertions drawn
mostly from how we understand international economics to work... (or not work,
depending upon whom you ask).
>The basic assumption about Hard Times TL loss is that the worlds are trying
>to become self-sufficient by dropping back 5 TLs and punting.
>Why should this be so?
It is so, mainly because the vast majority of these planets never indigenously
developed the technological base to support their tech levels. This does not
mean that *all* the planets in the Former Imperium will revert back to TL15,
nor do I believe that this is what "Hard Times" intended to imply. There
would naturally be certain cores of development, mostly around the oldest and
most developed regions of the FI (Former Imperium). In fact, this is exactly
what we see in "Hard Times", with the compact "safe zones" around the capitals
of the major players (Wariner, Capitol, Vland, etc.)
Nevertheless, the vast majority of the worlds have suffered either one of two
fates: A) They have been in the way of two or more large battle fleets (just
take Zarushagar as a prime example); or B) They were backwater regions that
survived on what limited trade did come through (the Reaver's Deep area comes
to mind). Some places, such as the Trojan Reaches and parts of the Solomani
Rim, are a victim of both. Thus the "wilds" described in "Hard Times". In
essence, the planets that are reduced to near TL5 were either bombarded or
starved back into the Stone Age (i.e. the 1950's).
> So why does it then follow
>that they would spend lots of money building industries to produce archaic
>equipment? If you need to spend the money on new industries anyway, why
>not build industries producing modern stuff?
Primarily, they don't have the technological know-how required, nor (even more
importantly) the capital to do the job. They may have a lot of money, but if
they don't have the silicon-etching equipment to make a TL8 computer, then how
are they going to make a TL8 computer? (Consider a country like Ethiopia
trying to start up its own semiconductor chip industry without foreign
capital!) And just look at the Former Soviet Union. Here was a former
Superpower that today, can't even feed itself. With such examples so
prevalent in the contemporary world, it takes very little imagination to see
how the Imperium might unravel, given 5+ years of cataclysmic war.
>I mean, we're TL8, right? If we suffered a major economic loss (up to but
>excluding a high level nuclear exchange), it would be EXTREMELY unlikely
>that we would stop building automobiles and start building horse-carts.
>The need would not be there unless 99+% of our auto industry were blasted
>into the stratosphere. Even then, it would be EASIER to reconstruct to
>build something we are familiar with, rather than something we've never
>done before.
On this point, I must disagree most strongly. First of all, if there had been
any but the *MOST LIMITED* (i.e. one or two detonations) of nuclear exchanges,
the world would have been lucky to escape with 5% of its manufacturing
capacity intact. Most probably, a nuclear war would completely demolish all
industrial capacity for at least two years. (The minimum time required for
the surviving population to reach some sort of morbidity equilibrium *and*
begin feeding itself on a reliable basis). I believe that a liberal estimate
of this new population level would be on the order of tens of millions of
people WORLDWIDE. Not nearly enough to sustain industry of any size. THIS is
exactly what the worlds inside the former battlezones of the FI have to deal
with.
Regarding the point that it would be easier for us to construct an automobile
than a horse cart, it may be true. But, there would be no capacity to
construct automobiles in a post-nuclear holocaust Earth. We would be lucky to
have horse-drawn wagons, or even horses!
>In Hard Times, it is possible for a TL15 world to lose grav technology.
>Grav is a 10,000 year old technology. It would be like us losing the
>ability to build a WHEEL!
Not quite. The wheel is the single simplest machine known to humankind. Grav
technology requires a well-developed technological/industrial base. About the
only worlds with that kind of home-grown capacity are exactly the ones inside
the "safe zones".
> It is also unreasonable to suppose that, after
>losing grav, the world would build a factory to produce items that noone
>has seen for 10,000 years (wheeled vehicles, that is). As long as you
>gotta build a factory, build a TL15 grav vehicle plant. It's going to cost
>gobs of money either way, but this way you get something GOOD for the
>money.
War is hell.
Finally, regarding Steve's point about high TL machinery suddenly
disappearing, I would have to agree with him. The whole idea is ludicrous.
I'm sure there would be mountains of very high-tech novelties just lying
around. Some of them might even work. But just try to maintain them, or get
them repaired! Does anyone know where there's a technician with Laser
Weapons-5 and Electronics-4? Big $$$$$$$$.
Sorry this got so long. I guess I just got up on a soapbox again. Oh well,
at least we don't have to be insulted with an Imperium-wide computer virus
anymore.
RHA
Richard H. Anderson
[email removed]