rebuttal to the rebuttal

By Steve Higginbotham ·

TML message #3564From bundle 288

>From: William Henry Timmins [email removed]
>
>For someone who follows the list but doesn't use Traveller:
>
>What's an impulse equal to?

Specific impulse is a measure of rocket/jet performance.  It is defined
as the number of seconds a unit of fuel can support it's own weight in
one G.  If you multiply specific impulse by 9.8m/s^2 (or 32.2ft/s^2),
the result is exhaust velocity of the propellant in m/s (or ft/s).

This value can then be inserted into:

     deltaV = (exhaust velocity)*ln[(initial mass)/(initial mass - fuel
mass)]

to get the rocket's total deltaV

To rebut parts of the rebuttal:

  1)
>>                                            So why does it then follow
>>that they would spend lots of money building industries to produce
archaic
>>equipment?  If you need to spend the money on new industries anyway,
why
>>not build industries producing modern stuff?
>
>Primarily, they don't have the technological know-how required, nor
(even more
>importantly) the capital to do the job.  They may have a lot of money,
but if
>they don't have the silicon-etching equipment to make a TL8 computer,
then how
>are they going to make a TL8 computer?  (Consider a country like
Ethiopia
>trying to start up its own semiconductor chip industry without foreign
>capital!)  And just look at the Former Soviet Union.  Here was a former
>Superpower that today, can't even feed itself.  With such examples so
>prevalent in the contemporary world, it takes very little imagination
to see
>how the Imperium might unravel, given 5+ years of cataclysmic war.

So what happened to those IDPs (Imperial Data Packages)???  WHile it is
true that you have to have the tools to build the tools, the IDPs
provide convenient blueprints for all that good stuff.  Did they all
evaporate too?
The Soviet Union was never a superpower, they were a third world country
with nuclear weapons.  Notice also that it took 70 YEARS for the Soviet
Union to reach that point.  Hard Times assumes the Imperium will reach
it in 5 years or less.

>>I mean, we're TL8, right?  If we suffered a major economic loss (up to
but
>>excluding a high level nuclear exchange), it would be EXTREMELY
unlikely
>>that we would stop building automobiles and start building
horse-carts.
>>The need would not be there unless 99+% of our auto industry were
blasted
>>into the stratosphere.  Even then, it would be EASIER to reconstruct
to
>>build something we are familiar with, rather than something we've
never
>>done before.
>
>On this point, I must disagree most strongly.  First of all, if there
had been
>any but the *MOST LIMITED* (i.e. one or two detonations) of nuclear
exchanges,
>the world would have been lucky to escape with 5% of its manufacturing
>capacity intact.  Most probably, a nuclear war would completely
demolish all
>industrial capacity for at least two years.  (The minimum time required
for
>the surviving population to reach some sort of morbidity equilibrium
*and*
>begin feeding itself on a reliable basis).  I believe that a liberal
estimate
>of this new population level would be on the order of tens of millions
of
>people WORLDWIDE.  Not nearly enough to sustain industry of any size.
THIS is
>exactly what the worlds inside the former battlezones of the FI have to
deal
>with.

Actually, if you look closely at Hard Times, the effects of prolonged
nuclear bombardment are covered in a different section.  The TL loss IS
affected by level of destruction, but will take place to a lesser extent
if there is no bombardment at all.
The population loss due to the war is also dealt with, and is seldom
that extreme, anyway.
The notion (to change the subject back down to Earth for a second) that
a general nuclear exchange between the USA and the Soviet Union would
destroy the industry in South America, Africa, Australia, Asia, etc.
has always puzzled me.  Could you explain why detonating bombs in North
America should destroy factories in South America???
In any case, with bombardment that extensive, the world (MT one again)
will not drop back 5 TLs, but will drop back 15 and start all over.  Not
the situation described in Hard Times either.

>>In Hard Times, it is possible for a TL15 world to lose grav
technology.
>>Grav is a 10,000 year old technology.  It would be like us losing the
>>ability to build a WHEEL!
>
>Not quite.  The wheel is the single simplest machine known to humankind.
Grav>technology requires a well-developed technological/industrial base.
About the
>only worlds with that kind of home-grown capacity are exactly the ones
inside
>the "safe zones".

So, how simple is Grav technlogy?  I didn't know that we had developed
it yet.  I assumed that any discussion of the technical difficulty of
Grav would have to wait until we got it and found out how hard it was.

Notice that the process for making reliably good steel took 2000+ years
to perfect, BUT was an EXTREMELY SIMPLE process, once you know how.
Notice that Fusion plants are so difficult that we haven't quite got one
working yet, but the construction of a Tokamak (for instance) is simpler
than an automobile engine.  Just bigger.

>Finally, regarding Steve's point about high TL machinery suddenly
>disappearing, I would have to agree with him.  The whole idea is
ludicrous.
>I'm sure there would be mountains of very high-tech novelties just lying
>around.  Some of them might even work.  But just try to maintain them, or
get
>them repaired!  Does anyone know where there's a technician with Laser
>Weapons-5 and Electronics-4?  Big $$$$$$$$.

My microwave has lasted for seven years without maintenance.  My car
seven years without any spare parts other than oil filters and brake
shoes, and without maintenance that I couldn't do with the tools in the
my trunk.  The only time this computer has been in the shop has been to
add more memory and a better modem.  My father's Air-Conditioner has
been chugging away for 14 years now with no maintenance except a new
filter every year or so.
Cynthia points out that her mother's microwave lasted 14 years without
maintenance.  It was also one of those microwaves that still used
pre-solid state components.
The US Navy's SSBNs have been operating for ~30 years.  There hasn't
even been a factory making most of their major spares since 1972.  They
swap equipment around from each other, and refurbish it in Navy shops.
They've been doing that for 20 years now, and the boats still spend 250+
days per year at sea.  Or so it was when I was on a boomer 5 years ago.

So why should TL15 equipment be MORE prone to failure than modern
equipment.  After all, they should have fewer moving parts, better
materials, beter manufacturing processes, better everything.  So why
should they break down so fast?  After all, a world like Terra (1128)
probably has 10,000,000,000 small fusion plants (in grav vehicles), as
well as the grav generators in those vehicles.  I'm pretty sure we could
keep 1,000,000,000 or so of those running with spare parts from the
others.  Probably for 100 years or more.

(up on my soapbox)
The primary requirements for high technology are knowledge (provided by
IDPs in the Imperium), and energy (lots and lots of it).  Rob Dean
pointed out that one Atlantis class battleship had ten times the
generation capacity of the USA.  Assuming that "shattered ships of the
fighting Imperium"  designs have any validity at all, virtually every
battleship in the Imperium produces 5+ times as much energy as the USA
does.  Assuming that free-traders aren't blasted out of space, the
free-trader's power plant produces more energy than the world did 75
years ago.  The energy will NOT be hard to come up with in the Imperium,
the knowledge is already there, the Hard Times will last for a few years
at most.

Notice that in 1919 Germany was in worse shape than most Imperial
planets : total economic collapse was beginning, their industry was all
in the hands of their enemies, and there was no external support to
speak of.  20 years later, they had a MORE advanced technology than any
of their neighbors (including the USA), and had built an industrial
complex that allowed them to fight the USA and USSR for four long years
till it was overcome.  And they din't even fully mobilize their industry
for wartime production until 1944!  If they can do that, why should a
world in the Imperium, with blueprints in hand, have a hard time
duplicating their recovery?

(these soapboxes are tiring.  My blood pressure can't take too much at a
time)

Later...

- -- Via DLG Pro v0.985b

[email removed]

I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
                                    --W. von Braun