Shall Not Perish 15 - Sword Worlds

Gentlesophonts:

From Thursday night, Phil Pugliese [email removed] writes:

> Subject: Sword Worlds History vs US History
>
> thought that I should raise the point that basing an argument upon fun-
> damentals that others don't accept will usually result in a conclusion
> that those others won't accept either.

Good point.  I hope I'm not trying to `force' the Sword Worlds into my own
view of how they `should' be but clearly that's how I'm being perceived.
I'll have to try harder.


One quick diversion, Stewart Eyres [email removed] writes:

> Subject: L'oeul d'Dieu 3010 B-98A510-B N Ni, Wa, Gg
>
> Comments:	This water world is under the aegis of Sharurshid, the
> 		megacorporation specialising in rare trade goods.

This is some really good stuff, except I thought Sharurshid and the other
Vilani megacorps had withdrawn to the Ziru Sirka during the Rebellion?
[WARNING: I don't have TNE!]  It seems to me that even if the Vilani
Bureaux had maintained a presence in the Domain of Deneb this presence
would have been cut-off by the Virus and the Quarantine Line and the
`Imperial' megacorps would have assumed control of former Bureaux assets.


Now back to the Sword Worlds.  Hans Rancke [email removed] writes:

> Encountering their TL 12 fleet en route. Now what?

Well, first, remember in my scenario, Sacnoth hasn't been selling any TL 12
goods to Gram, and since they probably can't get any from the Darrians
or the Imperium (the Zhodani, maybe, I admit, but Sacnoth has similar access)
so the Sacnoth Fleet only encouters a TL 11 Gram Fleet.  (I believe this was
the case in the 5FW.  Forces from different worlds - Gram and Joyeuse -
reflected the TL of the specific world.  Anyone have easy access to those
*Fifth Frontier War* counters who can check for sure?)

Before I go further, let me say that I've taken to heart Hans's (and Phil's)
comments that I should focus on the `facts at hand'.  I'm really trying to
come to an understanding of the situation based upon the facts rather than
my own view of `how it ought to be'.  I just see many inconsistencies in
what few facts we have at hand.

> (Or _not_ encountering
> it, which would be a lot more worrying ;-).

Well, yes, but this is the nature of interstellar warfare in the Traveller
universe.  :-)

> And the next thing you know Sacnoth is being visited by the combined fleets
> of the rest of the Sword Worlds who are anxious to ensure that you won't
> visit their world next.

Well, maybe, except that if Sacnoth does it's `front work' some of the
other Sword Worlds will be allied or at least tolerant of it's actions.  If
it hits the `leader' of the opposition first the remaining worlds will be
less likely to jump up for their own `chance in the barrel'.

> Perhaps this gave
> them an Us-and-Them mentality that prevails to this day.

Are those refugees *Piper's* `original Sword Worlders' or GDW's?  :-)
I believe the original GDW Sword Worlders were merely fleeing the
Interstellar Wars rather than their own specific defeat.

This might be true, but I don't think Sacnoth (or whoever) will need to
`cripple' the other worlds in order to dominate the Confederation.

> Which may be why Sachnoth is due for their own downturn on the cycle in the
> not too distant future.

I admit, if these `cycles' exist it explains a lot, but I just don't see
what causes them, nor understand why the same thing hasn't happened in the
Imperium or the Darrian Confederation.

> Think about this for a moment. Sacnoth is not the US in that analogy, they
> are another one of the Latin nations.

Okay, but I don't believe this situation is analogous in terms of the TL
disparities (I'll get to that in a bit).  In a `Latin' scenario with no US
I see several different blocs centered about the `stronger' nations like
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia (which will see much more stability
when the US drug market disappears).  This is quite similar to Sword
Worlds history.  If one world rises to dominance (possibly with Zhodani
aid) I suspect it will stay there.  In a feudal technocracy, it ought to
be the highest tech world.

BTW, if Gram does maintain its position with Zhodani aid *and* the Sword
Worlders have this `us vs. them' mentality it seems much more likely to
me that a combined fleet is going to show up at Gram, especially in light
of the anti-Zhodani sentiment in the Confederation.

> How significant is an advantage of 12 over 11 and 10?
> a TL 12 fleet is twice as efficient, ton for ton, as a TL 11 and
> six times as efficient as TL 10.

Another measure would be the TL mods used in *5FW*.  I don't remember the
details (and my copy is 250 mi. away in Fort Worth) but I seem to
remember just a few battalions of TL 15 Imperial troops being able to
hold off several TL 10-11 corps of Sword Worlders.  Let's use the
figures you've quoted until someone else digs up their copy of *5FW*.

> What is the population of Sacnoth compared to the rest of the
> Confederation? It's no use being twice as good as the other fellow if
> there's 10 of him.)

Okay, let's look at the info I posted a while back:

Sword Worlds Subsector Data c1120 (from *MTJ* #3)
Tizon (+6)      0922 B386887-A M   Ri                   323 Sw  K2VI M3D
Narsil (+6)     0927 B574A55-A M   Hi In                224 Sw  M0II M6D
Anduril (+7)    1026 B985855-B M   Ri                   222 Sw  F2V
Gram (+8)       1223 A895957-B M   Hi In Cp             603 Sw  F2D M2D
Sacnoth (+7)    1325 B775956-C M   Hi In                301 Sw* F9V M8D
Sting (+5)      1525 B645896-A M                        302 Sw* M0V

These are all the pop 8+ Sword Worlds.  Gram, at twice the population
of Sacnoth, ought to be able to fight the higher tech Sacnoth to a standstill.
Anduril, at one-tenth the population of Sacnoth, could choose the `winner'
in such a conflict.  Narsil, at a ten-to-one advantage over Sacnoth, suffers
a twelve-to-one technological disadvantage.  Seems a Sacnoth-Anduril alliance
should be able to topple those `Zho-puppets' on Gram.  Since Gram is the
capital that suggests a Gram-Anduril alliance (or Zhodani aid).

>   -  even if the other worlds don't buy TL 12 ships
> elsewhere.

Where?  I doubt the Imperium or the Darrians would sell to the Sword Worlds.
The Zhodani, maybe, but what advantage do *they* have in fostering instability
in the Confederation?  A stable Sword Worlds on the border of the Imperium
would have been in the interest of the Zhodani!

> Depends on what he buys. Some things (like computers) would be risky, other
> things could be checked against sabotage.

I'm wasn't thinking sabotage - I was thinking war-time embargo.  Tough to
wage a military campaign if you're buying your ammo-vehicles-medkits-
transport ships-*et al* from your adversary.

> But perhaps he buys them from the
> Imperium instead. After all, they are propably playing the US to the Sword
> Worlds' Latin America.

I doubt it.  At the risk of beating a dead horse, if allied Mexican-
Brazilian-Argentine troops had recently occupied San Diego and San Antonio
you can bet there would be *a lot* of support in the US for much more than
just `fostering instability' in Latin America.  (It's often fashionable to
make light of US resolve as being `typical' of great powers like the
Imperium but keep in mind the last time any `foreign' troops were in the
US proper they were from Virginia, Georgia and Maryland!)  It's clear
that any supposed efforts by the Imperium to merely foster instability
in the Sword Worlds have been unsuccessful - it hasn't prevented them
from attacking every time the Zhos get a wild hair.

> I don't see how that follows at all. The only times the Sword Worlds
> invade the Imperium is with promise of Zhodani help. You can't make
> many assumptions based on how people behave when they think they have
> a powerful ally.

I'm not sure I understand your point.  Regardless of why the Sword Worlds
have attacked the Imperium there are clearly reasons why the Imperium
hasn't `dealt' with the Sword Worlds long ago.  I doubt the Zhodani would
have gone to war over an Imperial invasion of the Sword Worlds so there
must be some reason the Sword Worlds themselves were able to deter such
action.

I can't reconcile this `fact' with the proposed `cycles'.  (And yet, I
can't reconcile Gram's leadership either.  I'm still generally confused
and dissatisfied.)

> Based on the constant instability of the Sword Worlds it seems to me that
> that may be precisely what the Imperium has been doing.
>
> On the contrary, if the Imperium has been doing that it explains why the
> Sword Worlds are PO'd enough to keep on joining an alliance that has struck
> out again and again.

Again, this seems contradictory to me.  Any Imperial meddling in the Sword
Worlds has caused the *opposite* result - Sword Worlds incursions - so
why hasn't the Imperium sent ". . . the [Imperial] Marines to that little
[subsector spinward of Glisten] and *stopped* that problem!"?

> >The Zhodani may be a factor
>
> I've no doubt they are a major factor.

Okay, this seems the only reasonable solution.  The Zhodani are supporting
Gram in its leadership of the Confederation.  Through this support, and
*despite* the generally anti-Zhodani sentiments in the Sword Worlds, Gram
is able to maintain its leadership in spite of the greater technological
accomlishments of Sacnoth.  In addition to it's support of Gram, the
Consulate has made it clear to the Imperium that it will not tolerate
direct action against the Confederation.

In a sense, the Sword Worlds have been nothing more than a Zhodani client
state.  (Ouch!  That's tough to admit.)  To continue to tromp on my Latin
American analogy, it's as if the Soviets had supported a Cuban-Mexican-
Brazilian-Argentine-*et al* confederation that overran Florida, Texas,
and California every few decades (and Lanth and Glisten are more like
Yuma, Del Rio, and Key West).  It's shaky, but I can understand it.
Maybe the `anti-Zhodani sentiment' in the Sword Worlds was just Imperial
propaganda?  (More likely, it was another poorly-considered `rationali-
zation' by the original developers used to explain why psionics weren't
rampant in the non-Imperial Sword Worlds.)

Given this, one would expect some major changes in this relationship now
that the Virus has severed Deneb's connection with the Imperium and there
has been some *rapproachement* with the Zhodani.  The Zhodani no longer
get as much value from supporting Gram.  Scanoth rises triumphant!?!  :-)

> I really think you should try to make up an explanation that fits the known
> facts rather than to make up an explanation and change the facts to fit them.

> Perhaps you'll come up with something useful.

So, what do you think?  Have I done it?  :-)

> There's no reason why a king should welcome a feudal pattern just because
> their own power is based on it. And, in fact, we KNOW they don't. If they
> did the Sword Worlds would be an empire instead of a confederation.

Well, I guess I still haven't explained my view of what a feudal technocracy
is.  The Sword Worlds leaders may be called `kings' but they're more like
`CEOs' - they are at the top of a huge, conglomerate, capitalist, economic
power structure.  They don't have an `empire' just like the `barons' of
the Japanese `keiritsu' don't.  They have a cooperative arrangement - a
Confederation.

I think this has been some good work.  It's certainly helped me to understand
the Sword Worlds better.  I just hope Phil Pugliese:

> I personally feel, considering the
> preceding text, that attempting to minutely dissect the evolution of the
> Sworld Worlds will inevitably be a sterile exercise.

is wrong.  :-)

Peace,

David Johnson
Colonel, (ret.), SWCAF
Houston, Texas, USA