post Hard Times...

Hans Rancke-Madsen writes:

>One danger, that Hard Times does _not_ address, is the possibility that
all
>these new polities will war with each other over trade planets. I
believe
>that there would be a lot more new polities in 1128 than Hard Times
thinks;
>I also believe that a number of them will have succumbed to neighbours
>within a decade. But there will also be a lot that survives.

I am forced to agree, more or less.
We (Cynthia and I) have not spent much time looking at the Warring
States period of the Recovery.  We both noticed that the Hard Times are
ideal periods for the "man on a horse" syndrome:  the Strong Leader
(read: Hitler, Stalin, Churchill, Roosevelt) will rescue us from all our
problems if we just do everything he says.  Some of these Leaders will
be benevolent.  Some won't.  There should be long term warfare in the
Former Imperium between the various polities and their various Leaders.

BUT...

We really should keep in mind those "Safe Areas".  They are already
larger, stronger, and more industrialized than any polity is likely to
be in the next few years.  Now that the shooting has stopped, they
should start re-expanding into the void within a few years at most.
This MAY result in resumed general warfare between Lucan and the
Universe, but Lucan is the Leader LEAST capable of re-expanding:  He
tends to destroy worlds that annoy him, and that tends to cause people
to fight to the last breath to keep from being conquered by him (sort of
like the Russian partisans in WW2 - Stalin was a bastard, but Hitler was
worse, so let's keep Hitler out no matter what it takes).  Norris,
Vland, Margaret, possibly Dulinor should be pushing their borders back
well before 1130.
Unfortunately, they are all going to run into the Solomani Confederation
pushing IT'S borders back.  I suspect, in the long run, that the Former
Iperium will become the Rule of Man (again!) with government on Terra.

Later...

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I have learned to use the word "impossible" with the greatest caution.
                                    --W. von Braun