After Hard Times

Steve Higginbotham writes:
>
>Hans Rancke-Madsen writes:
>
>>One danger, that Hard Times does _not_ address, is the possibility that
>>all these new polities will war with each other over trade planets. I
>>believe that there would be a lot more new polities in 1128 than Hard
>>Times thinks; I also believe that a number of them will have succumbed to
>>neighbours within a decade. But there will also be a lot that survives.
>
>I am forced to agree, more or less.
>[...] There should be long term warfare in the
>Former Imperium between the various polities and their various Leaders.
>
>BUT...
>
>We really should keep in mind those "Safe Areas".  They are already
>larger, stronger, and more industrialized than any polity is likely to
>be in the next few years.  Now that the shooting has stopped, they
>should start re-expanding into the void within a few years at most.
>[...] Norris, Vland, Margaret, possibly Dulinor should be pushing their
>borders back well before 1130.

And Antares. How the h... did Antares get in the same sorry
state as the rest of the factions? Didn't they get an alliance
with the Julian League? Especially hard to understand is the
Frontier and Wilds areas _between_ Antares and the League. Even
if Lucan kicked the shit out of the spinward part of Antares,
surely the coreward part would be protected by the League?

>Unfortunately, they are all going to run into the Solomani Confederation
>pushing IT'S borders back.  I suspect, in the long run, that the Former
>Iperium will become the Rule of Man (again!) with government on Terra.

They do have their internal squabbles which might prevent that.
Here is my bid for a possible developement:

The Solomani Confederation will steamroller out over all the former
Solomani Autonomous Region. It's only a matter of time. The heoric
defenders of Diaspora and Old Expanses may have stopped the initial
Solomani fleets, but the Confederation can produce more. But then
Confederation expansion will slow or even halt. There are factions
who will not want the Confederation to continue, and there are areas
like Vega that will be very hard to assimilate (It's my belief that
Terra itself could be a problem for another two generations). And
there'll alway be a big slice of the Confederation fleet tied down
guarding the Hierate border.

In the rest of the former Imperium the Safes will consolidate while
small polities will mushroom in the Outlands and the Wilds. Once
consolidated the Safes will try to reexpand, but no faction will
have the strength to do so solely by conquest. Think 17th Century.
The Great Powers will conquer some individual worlds and polities;
others will be bribed, threathend or cajoled into giving trade
concessions, allowing factories, outposts and colonies. The strongest
polities will be worth helping just to prevent another Great Power
from gaining it. And what one Power gains another will try to take
from it. Alliances will shift between Powers. Daibei and Delphi may
war over control of Massila, but they will ally against Confederation
or Core meddling. Some polities may even grow big enough to rival the
smaller Great Powers, or they may form Confederations of their own.

All in all it could be a very exiting time to adventure in. But it
will not be a second Long Night.



      Hans Rancke
University of Copenhagen
     [email removed]
- ------------
        "A  subsector  official  pompously states that the
        subsector  armed  forces  have  four Kinunir class
        ships in service,  each with enough troop strength
        to put down any military operations that threathen
        the peace of the Imperium."

                        ---Adventure 1, The Kinunir